Strictly Come Dancing / Jack Houghton / 17 October 2009 /

After a tense and TV-less afternoon, the arrows provided another winning week for Jack Houghton last time out. However, our man remains in hottish water, so this week he's resorting to desperate measures...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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As two sweating stallions pranced and prowled the stage in Dublin, their pulsating talent zoned in to dartistic perfection, all I could do was watch some numbers meander back and forth on a VDU. The satellite dish is kaput you see. And the wife ain't too keen on seeing it fixed. Of late then, much of my sporting viewing has been reduced to numbers on a screen: transfixed by Betfair markets broadcasting the ever-changing truth of sporting chance.

So as Betting Challenge pick Phil Taylor went 2-0 down to Barnie, all I could do was watch, helpless, as the right price got bigger, and the wrong price got smaller. If only I could have seen what was happening. What is it that so befuddles the understacker pioneer? How is this Dutch fiend perplexing him thus? I had no clue. But just as confusion and misery looked to deepen, like a sea-mist baked hot in a Norfolk sun, it began to dissipate. The odds commenced a journey back to expectation, and yet another winning bet for the Challenge was secured.

But I'm still in a bit of trouble. Nearly two months in and a nifty-fifty away from profit. It won't do. I'm going to have to select a club not oft used by the profitable gambler. It's a wood I call: Scattergun. Here we go...

Ricky Whittle in Strictly Come Dancing. Love him. He hardly practised at all last week due to work commitments and yet still back-flipped across our screens to deliver the most entertaining dance of the evening. But he's doing a Viennese Waltz this time out - which hardly plays to his naked-shaved chest and hip-gyrating strengths - and a score in the low 30s is likely his best result. It pains me to go against anyone with a screen-name like Calvin Valentine (believe it or not, he's not a pornstar); and it pains me even more to go against resident Strictly expert, Dudmeister-Smooth, but I'm laying Whittle for £10 in the Highest Scorer market at [1.75].

Next up is Rachel in X Factor. I'm having £20 on her at [2.7] to be in the bottom two come Sunday night. You can read a more in depth analysis in my article on the subject, but don't go changing just yet, this isn't a commercial break.

I cannot fathom the price of Chabal in Saturday's Dewhurst Stakes at 2.25pm. The majority of the opposition have posted speed performances in excess of the favourite, and I struggle to see the rationale for the inflated handicap rating he has been given in some quarters. He might be capable of better than he has shown, and quicker ground might help, but those are mighty big mights in a competitive field. His price is all about reputation and rumour, so I'm laying him for £5 in the winner market at [3.6] and £10 in the place market at [1.7].

And as I promised to bet no more than five per cent of my bank in any one week, I'll have to leave it there. So I won't be backing Sariska for the Champion Stakes. Nor Froch to beat Dirrell. Nor Westmead Wings in the doggie St. Leger. Nor Prince William to be the next engaged royal. Nor Helsingborg in Swedish Superliga Floorball. By the way, did you know the headquarters of IKEA are in Helsingborg? Went for an interview there once. The interviewer said, "Come in, make a chair."

No, these things will have to wait. And, on hearing this news, the Betting Challenge bank will, I suspect, sigh like an elegantly farting duchess with relief.

This week's bets:

£10 Lay Ricky Whittle at [1.75] in Highest Scorer market.
£20 Back Rachel at [2.7] in Bottom Two market.
£5 Lay Chabal at [3.6] in win market.
£10 Lay Chabal at [1.7] in place market.

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