US Politics / Mike Robb / 05 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Visit the new Betfair Politics Zone launched for Super Tuesday: http://politics.betfair.com

Outright Nomination Markets
The outright nomination markets ('Democratic Candidate' and 'Republican Candidate') are the biggest and, so far at least, most volatile on Betfair. The Democratic market has seen the most trading and was extremely active around the time of the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, seeing both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama trade at prices below [1.5].

The market has now matched over £1.2 million and this will surely rise substantially as Super Tuesday progresses. Expect fervent trading here - Obama has already come in from around [2.8] to [2.24] (1900 Monday 4th Feb) - and if he manages to pick up some early states we'll almost certainly see him trade odds-on again at some point in the next 36 hours.

Most States Won/Total States Won
Will Clinton or Obama win the most states as a whole? Interesting market and could well pick up over the course of the night if it is a tight race and we see both candidates winning key states.

The Republican market surely will not see as much trading as John McCain is such a favourite, but early surprises for Romney could see this change.

The total states won market offers five spreads to choose from, and is a tough one to call. Again, these markets could see active trading if it's a close race in either party - so watch out for the Democratic market more than the Republicans.

Individual State Markets
A market is being offered on every state in contention tomorrow, excluding American Samoa and Democrats abroad. Many of these will see little trading but the close states should see decent volumes. Especially look out for the California and Missouri Democratic Primaries, as well as Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee.

Profiles and betting information of all these states are available on the betting.betfair Super Tuesday homepage.

Next President
The next president market has now matched over £380k and it's extremely tight with Clinton the slight favourite, McCain in second place and Obama just behind in third. You can be almost certain that this order will change once, twice or more over the next couple of days.

McCain is largely being seen as more electable than Clinton, and this is why his price has been shortening in recent days. Obama, if he can win some key states tomorrow, especially California, will surely trade ahead of McCain. What's most interesting is whether or not Super Tuesday narrows this three-horse market down to two, or whether it will have to wait into March.

Next Vice President
This is a new market on Betfair, only launched over the weekend and so it has not seen much trading as yet. Mike Huckabee has been touted as a potential running mate for John McCain, however, so keep an eye on this market in the wake of Super Tuesday if Huckabee drops out and endorses him, as if this happens his price is sure to shorten somewhat.

Visit the new Betfair Politics Zone launched for Super Tuesday: http://politics.betfair.com

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, politics betting, presidential primaries, Super Tuesday