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How much of a disaster is Barack Obama's shock defeat in New Hampshire?

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Chicken Dinner take a look at the prospects for the rest of the campaign

Political writers approached last Tuesday's New Hampshire primary with their reports all but written, confidently expecting to answer the question 'Can Hillary Clinton come back from this setback?' After her spectacular and unexpected victory, however, the question is suddenly whether there is any way back for Barack Obama. So is there?

Hillary Clinton is [1.64] on Betfair to win the nomination, [2.64] to become the next President. Barack Obama is [2.64] to win the nomination, [3.75] to win the Presidential election.

How significant is the New Hampshire primary?

Since 1952, only two men have gone on to become President despite losing the New Hampshire primary: Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2000. 19 of the last 28 winners of the New Hampshire primary have gone on to win their party's nomination for the presidential election. Eight of the last 14 Democratic presidential candidates won the New Hampshire primary, as did 11 of the last 14 Republicans. (Outlook for Barack: pessimistic).

What happens to those who win in Iowa, but fall short in New Hampshire?

Of the six candidates who have won in Iowa, but come second in New Hampshire, three managed to earn their party's nomination, but only one (George W. Bush in 2000) went on to become President. Since 1972 only one Democratic candidate has won in Iowa, come second in New Hampshire and gone on to receive the Democratic nomination, and that was Walter Mondale, who was thrashed by Ronald Reagan in 1984. The last Democratic candidate to win Iowa and come second in New Hampshire was Dick Gephardt in 1988. He failed to win the nomination. (Outlook for Barack: pessimistic).

What happens to those who start strongly then fizzle out?

Completely fizzling out after a stellar Iowa is rare. Only four of the last 14 winners of the Democratic and Republican votes in Iowa failed to win their party's nomination. Candidates whose eye-catching early results proved to be nothing more than flashes in the pan include Bob Dole who won in Iowa in 1988, but ran out of steam, and Democrat Tom Harkin, who polled 76% of the votes in Iowa before slumping to fourth place in New Hampshire and never recovering. (Outlook for Barack: the field is too narrow for him to fold like cardboard.)

Is the Democratic race now down to just two horses?

Only twice has the nomination been won by candidates who failed in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and both were democrats - Bill Clinton in 1992 and George McGovern in 1972. (Every Republican Presidential candidate since 1972 has won in either Iowa or New Hampshire - or both - which is bad news for Rudy Giuliani.) Bill Clinton finished fourth in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, and McGovern finished third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. (Outlook for John Edwards: mortally wounded. Edwards is 55.0 to win the nomination.)

How many times can the lead change hands?

In the 2000 race, Republicans George W. Bush and John McCain saw the lead pass between them 10 times before Bush's triumph was secured by wins in big states like California and New York. Four different Democratic candidates won primaries in 2004, but John Kerry built on an unexpectedly strong showing in Iowa to win in the vast majority of the remaining states. Analysts expect this year's Presidential candidates to emerge following 'Super Tuesday' on February 5. (Outlook for Barack: may win a few more states, but the whole thing....)