US Presidential Election Morning View: What states are still toss ups on Betfair?

US Politics / Mike Robb / 02 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

This list, if nothing else, says a lot by the states not on it. In particular, the absence of Pennsylvania and Ohio should cause real concern for the McCain camp especially given the money, time and effort that has been put into them...

Missouri
Barack Obama [1.88], John McCain [2.08]

This state always has been close, and that certainly shouldn't change between now and Tuesday. Obama has traded as low as [1.47] and as high as [3.5], while John McCain hit a [1.28] low and just [2.9] high. The spread between these figures should come as an indicator of how volatile the betting in this state has been, and how there is no reason why McCain cannot pull it out of the bag by Tuesday.

If he does win here there have to be bigger implications for the rest of the country. Missouri means a lot, both in terms of the 11 Electoral College votes as well as its all-important bellwether status. In the Democratic Primary here Hillary Clinton traded at Betfair's minimum price of [1.01], and so there is no reason why the far smaller gap between the two candidates cannot be overturned on Tuesday.

If nothing else this state will definitely be the one to watch on Election Day.

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Indiana
John McCain [1.69], Barack Obama [2.34]

Indiana is another state where things are tight and in which both candidates have led at one time or another. McCain has traded at a low of [1.27] and a high of [2.2], while Obama hit [1.7] and [4.0] respectively. What's more interesting is that the volume of money traded has been split roughly evenly between the two candidates, an indication in itself that Betfair customers are yet to make their mind up for certain one way or another.

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North Carolina
Barack Obama [1.56], John McCain [2.52]

North Carolina is a state most would expect to be leaning strongly into the red column, yet Barack Obama finds himself ahead here. Saying that, John McCain has traded at a lower price, [1.2] to Obama's [1.4]. Perhaps this signifies the overall change seen in the campaign so far, with traditional Republican heartgrounds coming in-play for the Democrats in an unprecedented wave of support for Barack Obama.

One thing is for sure, this one is definitely up for grabs come Tuesday.

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Florida
Barack Obama [1.41], John McCain [3.05]

Perhaps Florida shouldn't really be on this list, but I have a feeling that there could be a bit more to happen here than the polls suggest. The state effectively won the election for George W Bush in 2000, and Kerry's failure to win here in 2004 was a significant contributor to his downfall, so both candidates are obviously placing a lot of importance on the Sunshine State.

So far Florida has seen the highest volume of trading and this could well still be the case come Wednesday morning, especially if the state appears closer than polls suggest. John McCain, currently behind, was matched at a low of [1.36] and high of [3.75], while Obama was matched at [1.34] and [3.2] respectively. Two-thirds of the total volume has backed the Democrat, though the big price swings in the state indicate that either one could win it when push comes to shove.

Click here to get this chart from Betfair Predicts