U.S. Presidential Election Morning View: One week to go and signs of hope appear for John McCain

US Politics / Mike Robb / 28 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

With one week until Americans go to the polls, Betting@Betfair will be giving you an overview of the ups and downs across all of Betfair's U.S. Election markets for the last 24 hours. Today? Signs of improved confidence in John McCain...

The Betfair markets have made bleak reading for McCain supporters over the last six weeks. Looking even further back, the Arizona Senator has not led in the overall market since Super Tuesday in February, a time when he only led because there were two evenly priced Democrats, both Obama and Hillary Clinton, still fighting over their party's nomination. The 'Palin Bounce' showed signs of hope and the two were running near neck-and-neck for a time, but Obama has always held the outright lead.

At first glance things do not appear any different today. Obama is an eye-wateringly short [1.11] in an overall market that has steadily got stronger for the Democrat. Look deeper, however, and signs are afoot that Betfair traders are more nervous than they might appear. More than GBP 180,000 was traded across Betfair's U.S. Election markets yesterday as customers start to look for profit-making opportunities over the next week: make sure you don't miss out. Click here to bet now.

Missouri
As has been well documented, the 'Show Me State' has only voted for the candidate who did not go on to win nationally once since 1904, and so many eyes are on this bellwether state to give an indication of support. Even more importantly, the 11 Electoral College votes on offer could be vital should things pan out closer than expected.

Over the last 24 hours the gap has closed significantly in this Mid-Western staet. This time yesterday Barack Obama led by 35 percent but that has been cut overnight to nearer 20 percent. That still leaves a large gap to close for John McCain, but the sentiment is there. If the gap in Missouri is shortening then the gap in the overall should be too, but it's not - the question here is why?

Chick here to get the chart at Betfair Predicts

Ohio
Ohio is one of the big three battleground states along with Florida and Missouri and the Betfair market is showing slight moves back in McCain's direction. Barack Obama is still strong favourite to win the state but the signs are there that a Republican revival could be on the cards.

Chick here to get the chart at Betfair Predicts

Indiana
Barack Obama has been leading in Indiana until today, but the positions have now flipped and McCain leads once more in a state he really should win. There's no doubt that it will be close here either way but the signs are pointing at a McCain revival.

Georgia
Just yesterday we were reporting how Georgia was now 'in play' for John McCain, but overnight his position has strengthened significantly in this traditional Republican state. It would be a shock for any GOP presidential candidate to lose Georgia and it now looks like the state is moving back to the 'safe' column for the McCain camp.

Two states to watch: Florida and Pennsylvania
The balance of the election should be tipped by these states and one simple fact remains: John McCain really needs to secure one of the two if he is to have a chance of winning.

As of this morning we have not seen the same moves as above in either of these two beasts to suggest they could swing back to the GOP. This in itself could present an opportunity for Betfair traders to buy into the market before the markets move.

It is well documented that John McCain has put a lot of effort, time and resources into Pennsylvania and this is only likely to increase over the next week. At [1.13] this could well be a state in which to lay Obama sooner rather than later.