US Politics / Mike Robb / 31 October 2008 / Leave a comment

What price would you get for a 50-fold accumulator on the result of every state in the U.S. for next Tuesday's election? I'll give you a clue: it ain't too shabby...

I'll get right to the point. If you were to put 10 of your finest English pounds on a single bet of the outcome in every state market according to the current Betfair odds, you would be going home with 1,900 quid for your troubles. A very healthy return in anyone's book.

But before you go booking that trip of a lifetime you've got a bit more work to do. No bookmaker I've found will agree to take the bet.

Why not? Simple. The Betfair markets are so accurate at predicting elections that bookmakers - who are essentially looking to take your money and avoid risk - will run a mile when it comes to political punters with the serious intention of making a well thought out and impassionate punt. Why - because they're clever folk and really know what they're talking about? No, because the Betfair markets aggregate the opinion of thousands of clever folk who know what they're talking about, giving a prediction with real credence.

Even selecting just the 14 closest states, including Missouri, Indiana, Ohio and Florida, would yield something around 60-1. Alas it's a case of déjà vu, no bookie wants to hear a word of it.

One thing is for sure - I'm not giving up hope. I will be scouring the betting floors between now and Tuesday in search of an off-guard bookmaker to take my bet. Yee must take up the challenge, find the unsuspecting betting shop and get in touch to let me know how to get there!

Now we know what Aristotle meant when he said that in a democracy the poor have more power than the rich. Well, sort of.