US President Betting Morning View: Barack Obama has one foot in the White House

US Politics / Mike Robb / 04 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Barack Obama is striding towards victory in the Presidential Election today, according to Betfair users. As of 1000 GMT the Democrat leads 95% to 5% - his biggest lead since Betfair's markets opened.

There had been signs of a revival for John McCain over the last week but as Americans go to the polls it looks as though all that is left is the formality of voting. Crucially, Obama leads in all the key swing states and Betfair predicts 364 Electoral College votes will fall in the blue column, 174 in the red.

Key battleground states:
Ohio 76% Obama
Florida 75% Obama
Missouri 53% Obama
Pennsylvania 93% Obama
North Carolina 57% Obama
Indiana 60% McCain
Nevada 83% Obama
Georgia 76% McCain
Virginia 87% Obama
Arizona 83% McCain

We've all been waiting to see the big move in John McCain's favour but it has failed to materialise. Betfair's politics markets have a high level of accuracy at predicting outcomes and so it will be a real shock if Obama fails to win now.

Betfair HQ will be buzzing with activity overnight as things unfold. Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Head of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, will be on hand all night to provide real-time analysis of events. If you would like to contact him or the Betfair analysts for comment at any time during the night please email michael.robb@betfair.com.

There will be live updates of all the market movements as they happen here at http://betting.betfair.com/specials/politics-betting, while live updates of each individual market can be seen at www.betfairpredicts.com.

Meanwhile, Betfair has opened a market on the 2012 Presidential Election. Early trading makes Barack Obama the [1.61] favourite, with Sarah Palin the shortest priced Republican at [4.2]. Other candidates listed in the market include Republican primary losers Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, current Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal.