US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 March 2012 /

Arch conservative defeats nomination favourite in southern primary but how long can he stay in the race?

In recent days, Mitt Romney's strategy has been to call for his rivals to accept defeat in the race for the Republican nomination, in order to unite ahead of November's contest with President Obama. Defeat in last night's Louisiana primary, however, will put paid to Romney's premature optimism and raise further doubts about his ability to seal the deal. It also confirms Rick Santorum's position as the only man who can defeat the front-runner.

Romney retains a large lead in delegates and therefore remains a prohibitive [1.11] favourite. Given that Santorum's organisation is simply not strong enough nationwide to pass the 1144 delegates threshold with no outside help, there are in effect two potential outcomes. Either Romney reaches the threshold with wins in the big contests still to come, or they head to a brokered convention, which would throw all sorts of other outcomes into the mix. Next up are a trio of winner-takes-all contests in Maryland, Washington DC and Wisconsin on April 3.

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