US Politics / Mike Robb / 04 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Florida is as pivotal as ever this year. Barack Obama leads at the moment according to both the Betfair market and the majority of opinion polls, but there are many factors that will impact the outcome of the race in the Sunshine State. Count John McCain out at your peril...

Florida has been the most famous state in a political context in recent elections. Back in 2000, Florida was at the centre of the vote-counting controversy that effectively lost Al Gore the election. Scandal and conspiracy theory aside, the fact that losing this state alone can cost you the election says much about how important it is.

Looking at how the Sunshine State has voted over time it would suggest Republican tendencies. In only three of the 14 Presidential Elections since 1948 has the state gone Democrat, and yet both current polls as well as the Betfair market suggest that that could well become four. The state's two senators are currently split with one Democrat and one Republican, while the Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

The current Governor, Charlie Crist, is a Republican and was muted as a running mate for John McCain in the same way every major Floridian politician seems to be come election season. The same was true in 2004 when John Kerry was rumoured to have been so close to choosing Bob Graham, the three-term Florida Senator, that his campaign actually had the Kerry-Graham placards and merchandise sent for production. In other words, Florida is vital in this election as any other - win here and you stand a very good chance of coming out on top overall.

Like Georgia to the north, weather could play an important role in the state and traders in the Florida market should not be fooled by the 'Sunshine State' label. Severe weather is no stranger to all parts of the state and although for many Floridians November is one of the more pleasant months of the year, check that weather forecast in the morning and lay Obama if the rain is falling, especially in the urban areas like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville and Tampa. Turnout is vital for Obama - if it's high, he wins. Read the Georgia profile (here) for a description of why the weather could be important in this respect.

Looking at the Betfair market it is interesting to note that John McCain had been leading here, perhaps as expected, right into October. Since then, however, we have seen a steady increase in Obama's lead to the point where he is now given a 70% chance of winning. I think it's fair to say that Florida holds the key for John McCain whereas Barack Obama can afford to lose it so long as he looks to have Ohio in the bag. If McCain is to come close in the Electoral College vote he will need Florida to fall in the red column.

What's most important is that it could happen. Polls are far less certain than the Betfair market in how strong Florida is for Obama at the moment and looking at the electoral history and current trends it might be worth backing McCain to win if the price gets much bigger. Alternatively, you could back McCain in the outright market (at a bigger price) and trade out on election night itself if he wins Florida - another reason why the state is so important is its location, where early exit polls can influence voters on the West Coast who want to vote late and back the winner.

Overall there is clearly a lot at stake in Florida. The Betfair market has the state as very strong for Obama at present but it wouldn't surprise me if things are looking far more even as election day approaches and, indeed, once polls actually opens and voting begins. One thing is for sure - McCain needs to prove Betfair traders wrong here. If he does, we've got a very interesting election day to look forward to.

This year's betting: (Click to bet)
Florida State Betting
Florida State Handicap Betting

Important information

- Timezone: GMT -5

- Polls open: 12PM GMT (7AM ET)

- Polls close: 12AM GMT (7PM ET)

- Abbreviation: FL

- Electoral College votes: 27

Demographics

- White: 61.3%

- Hispanic: 20.2%

- Black: 15.8%

- Other: 2.7%

Political history

- Senators: Bill Nelson (Democrat) and Mel Martinez (Republican)

- Governor: Charlie Crist (Republican)

- 2004 voted for: Bush

Other stats

- Population: 18.1 million

- State nickname: The Sunshine State

- State capital: Tallahassee

- Most famous offspring: Burt Reynolds, Pat Boone, Jim Morrison, Janet Reno, Don Shula

- Strange fact: There is a crypt in Key West, Florida, with the inscription, 'I told you I was sick'