US Politics: Obama sits pretty as Romney fights for his life

US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Romney campaigns in Florida

"In a country beset by economic stagnation, where the Occupy message highlighting inequality between the top 1% and bottom 99% resonates, Romney's extreme wealth, relatively low tax rate and career in finance is toxic."

Even if Mitt Romney does manage to win the Republican Party nomination, his battle with Newt Gingrich and other rivals may have irreparably damaged his chances of becoming President, says Paul Krishnamurty.

The contrast between the fortunes of the two likeliest men to become President in November couldn't be more stark. As incumbent Barack Obama laid out his pitch for a second term with a confident State of the Union address, the favourite to be Republican candidate was fighting for his political life.

After a rollercoaster fortnight, Mitt Romney has resumed his position as overwhelming favourite to win his party's nomination. Punters panicked following defeat to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, which saw [1.1] backers burn their fingers, forcing his Florida odds out from [1.05] to a high of [3.0]. The Florida polls, however, have turned again in response to a relentlessly negative ad campaign against Gingrich, restoring the former Massachusetts Governor to [1.34] favouritism for the primary, and [1.25] for the nomination. Nevertheless, doubts remain about Romney's ability to win over a hostile base and recover from a bruising contest, which has seen his reputation torn to shreds.

Before any contest with Obama, Romney must blunt Gingrich's momentum in Florida, and bury the memory of a disastrous 54/13 defeat to John McCain there in 2008. In recent days, polls have swung between a 9% Gingrich lead to an 8% advantage for Romney. With voters obviously undecided, last night's CNN debate could prove critical, as will turnout. On the latter point, Gingrich may fare better as his supporters tend to be older, stronger identified as Republicans and therefore likelier to vote. The former Speaker has also been drawing bigger crowds.

A further problem for Romney is Florida's large Hispanic population, which has long been courted by his opponent. Gingrich's more moderate stance on immigration contrasts favourably with Romney, whose 'self-deportation' idea was ridiculed during the opening debate, making him appear characteristically opportunistic.

Those reasons justify a small lay of the favourite at odds-on in Florida, but the best value lies in taking him on for the Presidency. Even if Romney does edge the nomination, this bitter contest may have irreparably damaged his national reputation. In the fortnight since Gingrich started attacking the corporate career and tax records of the 'King of Bain', Romney's lack of favour amongst Americans has risen by 15%. In a country beset by economic stagnation, where the Occupy message highlighting inequality between the top 1% and bottom 99% resonates, Romney's extreme wealth, relatively low tax rate and career in finance is toxic.

These attacks from his own party play right into Obama's hands. The President made it abundantly clear on Tuesday that economic fairness, repealing the Bush-era tax cuts for the rich, to which Republican opposition is guraranteed, would be a central message of his re-election campaign. So far, Romney has released just one year's tax returns, to considerable controversy. Expect Gingrich, and then Obama, to push for details dating further back, which may reveal an even lower rate. Likewise, the Democrats will expand on the themes explored in Gingrich's attack-ads, accusing Romney of slashing jobs and asset-stripping. Sooner or later, either Republican decision-makers or the wider electorate may conclude that Romney remains the weak candidate that flopped so abysmally in 2008.

Recommended Bets
Lay Mitt Romney for Florida Primary @ [1.34]
Lay Mitt Romney to be Next President @ [2.9]