US Presidential Election Betting: Is there value to be found at "the moment of truth"?

US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 04 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Having led every poll since mid-September, the Democrats have got to believe that this is their year. But, even if Barack Obama runs away it, the rolling fields of the republic could yet yield value for punters, says Chicken Dinner.

After 22 months of campaigning for the world's most stressful job, today the squabbling between the candidates stops, and the really serious queuing up for the public begins. Early voting in today's election began back on October 20, and in many parts of the US, even those voters sufficiently eager and organised to get to the polling station in good time found themselves facing long lines and a wait of several hours. With the deadline for voting falling this evening, a lot of Americans had better remember to take a good book.

The Obama campaign (Obama is [1.05] to win on Betfair on election morning, McCain [17.5]) has spent an awful lot of time and money organising in the field, making sure Obama supporters are registered to vote and motivated to do so. Now it just has to hope they are not disenchanted by the patience required to exercise their democratic right. Even if some voters decide they've got better things to do, the Democrats have got to feel that this year is their year, with their man leading in every national poll since mid-September.

For the punter, however, there are still some intriguing match ups in the battleground states, where there is still some doubt as to which way they are going to fall. If there is going to be a shock, these are the states where drama has to happen. Can it?

Ohio

Just before polls open for the last time, Obama leads by 3.2 per cent. On October 31, however, that lead was almost six percent, and not surprisingly, McCain has been busting a gut in the last week of campaigning to wave at as many Ohioans as possible. The Betfair market hasn't particularly warmed to his efforts, however. McCain is only [4.4] to carry the state, Obama [1.23].

Florida

Voting here is expected to be intense - on the morning of polling day, there's less than two percent difference between the candidates, a gap so small as to be statistically insignificant. Both candidates have hit Florida hard at the end of their campaigns, but although they're neck and neck in the polls, the markets are having none of it. Betfair has Obama at [1.29], McCain at [3.95], which in a tight race is probably the best value of any of the swing state markets.

North Carolina

The idea that a Democrat could win in North Carolina has been an excellent joke since 1980, yet the Obama machine has put up an impressive performance. Opinion polls here have the candidates less than a percentage point apart going into election day. Betfair punters still prefer Obama ([1.63] to McCain's [2.44]), but this is another market where there could still be a little value in McCain.

Missouri

Another state that is just too close to call based on opinion polls, which have the opponents separated by just half a percentage point. Not even Betfair punters have a clear idea what's going on here, with McCain at [1.96] and Obama at [1.93]. This could be the most thrilling race of the night. If you're going to take a chance here, remember that Missouri is the state that has most consistently picked the winner, so if Obama is going to win the presidency, Missouri ought to vote Obama.

Indiana

This is the only state where there might still be a little bit of Democrat value to be found. Indiana is traditionally so Republican that observers have been amazed to see Obama find enough oxygen to challenge here, and although McCain has pushed back into the lead in the polls after temporarily relinquishing it, it's a tiny advantage, and small enough for Obama to still cause an upset. McCain is [1.66] on Betfair to win in Indiana, Obama [2.32].

* All figures are from the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls.