US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 February 2012 /

More drama from the US as social conservative candidate pulls off shock hat-trick and Romney backers get burnt. Paul Krishnamurty explains what it all means for the race and the markets...

The race to be Republican candidate against President Obama took another dramatic turn last night, as Rick Santorum stormed to a hat-trick of caucus victories in Minnesota, Missouri and against all expectations, Colorado. The last-named contest produced one of the biggest upsets in Betfair's political betting history, with Mitt Romney turned over after being backed down to the minimum odds of [1.01].

With an earlier win in Iowa already bagged, Santorum appears to have cemented his status as the leading social conservative candidate, and since Newt Gingrich has failed to build on his win in South Carolina, the former Pennsylvania Senator is in pole position to monopolise the substantial anti-Romney sentiment amongst Republican voters. From an earlier high of [340.0] and [150.0] even just a fortnight ago, Santorum has been backed at single figures this morning.

Romney remains hot favourite at [1.32], but this failure to sew up the nomination from a dominant position will only add to doubts about his appeal to Conservative voters, and there is further cause for concern amongst Romney supporters in recent poll numbers that severely damage his USP. Not only do ABC record the President opening up a clear lead over the man purported to be his most dangerous rival, but also that two-thirds of voters say the more they hear about Romney, the less they like.

As noted here a couple of weeks ago, the former Massachusetts Governor's extreme wealth and corporate record appear to be proving a severe handicap. His core vote in this contest - Republicans motivated to back the candidate likeliest to beat Obama - may well start to reconsider.

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