US Politics Betting: Carnage in Carolina as punters desert nominee-elect Romney

US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney is no longer the favourite to win in South Carolina

"Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner."

The last few days has seen a number of important events that have turned the race to be the Republican candidate on its head. All of which is playing into the hands of Barack Obama, says Paul Krishnamurty.

In keeping with a long history of political betting shocks, the race for the Republican nomination has been turned on it's head over recent days. When the final week of campaigning for the South Carolina Primary began, Mitt Romney was trading as low as [1.1] for both the nomination and tonight's pivotal contest. Suddenly, following a series of significant developments, he is friendless for South Carolina at [5.1] and drifting out to [1.4] for the wider contest.

The favourite's troubles began after a series of hostile ads inspired by chief rival Newt Gingrich, who had previously been on the receiving end of negative campaigning from Romney backers before the opening Iowa Caucus. As voters mulled over Romney's controversial corporate past at Bain Capital, the billionaire failed to neutralise criticism of his tax affairs. With the wind in his sails, Gingrich stepped up the pressure with two strong debate performances and polling in the Southern state was transformed. Having trailed Romney by 11 points only six days ago, the latest numbers have Gingrich ahead by 9%.

Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner. A Gingrich victory tonight would now mean three different candidates had won the opening three races while a fourth, Ron Paul, remains a key player. Another significant development is the withdrawal of one-time favourite Rick Perry, and his subsequent endorsement of Gingrich. Perry was the one candidate with a potential donor base to rival Romney, and now their man has effectively confirmed the controversial former House Speaker as the principal anti-Romney candidate, that cash may well pour into Gingrich's coffers, therefore levelling the playing field.

However the race develops over the longer-term, it seems increasingly certain that Romney will be unable to declare an early victory and focus his attention on the later Presidential contest. Barack Obama, an eyecatching [1.83] to win a second term, must be delighted by this week's events. Punters wanting to learn in greater detail about the dynamics behind these intriguing races might gain something from checking out CNN's all-night coverage with Wolf Blitzer and a team of experts. Some of the detailed analysis frankly puts the UK media to shame.