US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 March 2012 /

More news and views from Paul Krishnamurty as the race to become the Republican candidate reaches the Deep South.

Tuesday's Republican primaries could be a make or break night in the race to line up against President Obama in November. While [1.17] favourite Mitt Romney retains a substantial lead in delegates, these two contests in the Deep South are far from fertile territory for the man labelled a 'Massachuesetts Liberal' by his rivals.

The betting for both Alabama and Mississippi suggests a couple of genuine three-runner races, and if anyone can complete the double, they will emerge with significant momentum.

Newt Gingrich, currently third in the delegates race with just two Southern wins to his name, has indicated that he will withdraw if suffering another bad night. If so, that could be fantastic news for Rick Santorum, who won Kansas easily on Saturday and would then be in a position to dominate the anti-Romney vote. Likewise, a win for Romney in either contest would strengthen the air of inevitability about his candidacy.

The problem for both men, however, is that Gingrich increasingly looks like starting as favourite for both contests, potentially adding a further twist to this tight race. Today's polls fail to clarity the picture. The three candidates are separated by no more than four percentage points in these two states, whereas two national polls show either Romney or Santorum 4% ahead, depending which firm one wants to believe.

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