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US Political Betting: Rogue priest interrupts Democrats' breather

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And ten things you currently need to know about that suggest Mrs Clinton's price is likely to shorten...

You know how sometimes you only really become conscious of a noise by its silence, such as the instant the neighbour turns his lawn mower off? Well, until yesterday the race for the Democratic nomination had taken on that eerie just-turned-off feel about it. After months of unblinking arm wrestling before a very rowdy audience, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton slipped way down the news schedule, to the extent that you could almost be forgiven for thinking someone had won.

With no primary until April 22, and the blackest economic thundercloud to have formed over the US in the last eighty years dominating the news, the candidates were quietly assessing their campaigns before the next shove. But then the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama's longtime minister, popped up with some incendiary thoughts, such as the idea that black Americans should sing God Damn America instead of God Bless America, and suddenly the campaign is thundering along again.

Ten things you currently need to know about what's going on, and why Mrs Clinton's price is likely to shorten:

1. Barack is still favourite to win, at 1.39 on Betfair to take the Democratic nomination. Hillary is available at 3.8, considerably shorter than the 6.0 she was before the Ohio primary.

2. He has more delegates, an overall advantage in the popular vote and a superior fundraising capacity.

3. His recent victories in Wyoming and Mississippi have enabled him to widen the gap that Hillary had narrowed with her big wins in Ohio and Texas.

However...

4. Pennsylvania, which holds the next primary on April 22, is likely to mirror the result in Ohio - ie a big win for Hillary.

5. Now that the campaigning has slowed to a trickle, there will probably be several debates in Pennsylvania, a vote-winning technique that tends to favour Mrs Clinton.

6. The appearance of the four horsemen of the apocalypse in the financial markets is also better news for Mrs Clinton than her rival. She benefits from the warm feeling people get when they think about Bill Clinton's stewardship of the economy, which left the country stable, prosperous and with a budget surplus. Mr Obama is seen as badly inexperienced in economic management.

7. The comments of Reverend White, who has previously also claimed that America was responsible for 9/11 and preaches about whites as oppressors, drove Barack Obama to make a dramatic damage control speech yesterday. While the speech was a hit, Senator Obama has his work cut out to shift the focus of his campaign away from this controversy.

8. Mrs Clinton's people have shown themselves better at exploiting gaps between votes than Mr Obama's.

9. The pause in the action gives the Clinton campaign time to try and find a way for Florida and Michigan to have their votes included - they were disqualified for bringing their primaries forward against the wishes of those responsible for the voting calendar. Both states favour Mrs Clinton.

10. On RealClearPolitics.com's average of polls, Mr Obama is currently at 46.3 per cent and trending down, Mrs Clinton at 44.8 per cent and trending up.

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