US Elections: The race for the Republican nomination

US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 16 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Obama/Clinton contest has taken the shine off the Republican race to date, but there are four candidates with genuine chances of winning. The politics betting men at Chicken Dinner analyse the field...

If anyone was hoping Tuesday's Michigan primary would serve to thin the field for the Republican nomination - hard luck. A Mitt Romney defeat would have left him mortally wounded, but he won, and now each of the three primaries so far has produced a different winner, with Rudi Giuliani yet to really join in. All of which leaves Republicans spoilt for choice in 2008, with holy man Huckabee, war veteran McCain, mafia hunter Giuliani and business robot Romney all scrapping it out. So how will the voters decide?

Age

Current frontrunner John McCain ([2.88] to win on Betfair) is going to struggle to allay fears that at 72 he is too old for the job. Age shouldn't matter: Ronald Reagan was 69 when he ran in 1984 and won with the highest popular vote in US electoral history. He also polls well with boomers, pulling in 29 percent of those 55 and older. However, younger voters are more inclined towards Huckabee and Romney, more energetic speakers with a definite feel- good factor. A war hero and elder statesman, McCain is perfect VP material, so expect a collaboration with a rival when his luck runs out.
Momentum

Rudy Giuliani ([4.6] on Betfair) has deliberately snubbed the smaller, "early momentum" states, and will be delighted by the confusion that has emerged from the first votes. He led the polls throughout 2007 and has the resources and national profile to make a huge impression in the bigger states. This strategy is not without precedent: in 1996, Bob Dole was seen as the most likely winner. He neglected early primaries, allowing Pat Buchanan victories in Alaska, Louisiana and New Hampshire, but ran away with the contest with a late push. Similarly, momentum from McCain's victory at New Hampshire has already dwindled with the Michigan result.

Funding and sponsorship

In the seven elections since 1980 the candidate who has won the so-called "money primary" (raised most money) has gone on to win their party's nomination in all but two elections . Giuliani has raised the most money (with a reported $11 million in reserve), but Mitt Romney ([5.0] to win) has spent the most so far ($21 million), by supplementing his campaign with his personal fortune. McCain trails in fourth place with a modest $5 million raised. Statistically Guiliani should be favourite to win, however, he has been beset by financial mismanagement and is in danger of being drained by the Florida contest on January 29, where he has to score.

Non-political qualifications

Of America's 43 presidents, 25 have been lawyers, making it the most popular presidential vocation. All the Republican candidates except McCain are trained in law. Guiliani has the most impressive legal resume: he was a US Attorney in New York (where he plotted the downfall of mafia boss John Gotti). Romney underplays his law school past, counting on his appeal as a CEO to win votes. The electorate generally like business credentials, but are also cynical as the last CEO-president (George W Bush) has become deeply unpopular.

As it stands...

McCain's price looks far too short - barring a sudden cash injection his campaign is likely to be crushed in the big states. Mike Huckabee is a dark horse at [6.6] but his stance on abortion and gay marriage will cost him, especially in the north east. Despite his deliberately lacklustre performance so far Guiliani sits second favourite at [5.0], but he needs to show he hasn't waited too long to build momentum, and his serial mention of 9/11 has worn thin (voters traditionally favour candidates who speak in the future tense). So astonishingly, at [5.0] and shortening, Romney is suddenly the candidate with the wind in his sails.