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US Election Odds: The current mood of the swing states
US Politics
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Chicken Dinner /
27 June 2008 /
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With five months to go before the election, the issues troubling Americans now may not be the most vexing come November. Nationally, the price of petrol, the collapse of the housing market and the war in Iraq are the biggest drivers of anxiety. Locally, heavy flooding in the Midwest and drought in Southern California are also providing something of a distraction.
By autumn presidential candidates could have a whole different set of dragons to slay. So even though the American economy is swerving across the road like a car being driven by the family dog, neither candidate is saying much on the subject of America's woes. Leave them to George Bush - he created them after all. Meantime, John McCain and Barack Obama are keeping a relatively low profile, concentrating their energies on fund raising, and letting the strategists worry about how to best unfurl their campaign to swing the most sensitive states.
As the US general election operates on an electoral votes system - the most voted for candidate in each state receives all of that state's electoral college votes, and the most electoral votes wins - there is no incentive to campaign in those states which are already considered won or lost, as additional votes in such circumstances count for nothing. Instead, the candidates have to focus all their attention on the so-called "swing states", or states which could go either way.
This is the latest picture from those states which are expected to have trouble deciding.
New Hampshire - This state liked Bush in 2000, then didn't in 2004. Any state whose motto reads Live Free or Die is always going to go weak at the knees for a real-life war hero like McCain, and Obama was surprisingly overturned there by Clinton at the beginning of his campaign.
Latest poll: Obama by 11 per cent.
Pennsylvania - Democrat since 1992, but if the Clinton/Obama contest revealed anything, it's that many of the white working class cannot get their heads around Obama. Although Obama leads, McCain's people have to believe they can do some damage here.
Latest poll: Obama by 12 per cent.
Florida - Another fine mess. There's a Republican governor and McCain leads, but more economic and environmental pain could change that.
Latest poll: McCain by eight.
Ohio - The decisive state last time round, with plenty of rust belt antipathy toward Obama. Ohio has only failed to pick the winner once since 1948.
Latest poll: McCain by one.
Michigan - Plenty of Obama antipathy because they're another pro-Hillary rust belt state and because the Dems dissed them in the primaries, but they dislike McCain even more because he told the car workers their jobs were gone for ever.
Latest poll: Obama by nine.
Wisconsin - The closest race of 2004.
Latest poll: Obama by nine.
Virginia - The current favourite to be the decisive battleground in 2008. A booming population of Washington commuters and African-Americans helps Obama, but McCain is also popular, so expect plenty of his war stories.
Latest poll: Obama by two.
Iowa - Super close in 2000 (Gore) and 2004 (Bush).
Latest poll: Obama by seven.
New Mexico - Like Iowa, New Mexico has in recent years been on a knife edge. McCain comes from neighbouring Arizona.
Latest poll: Obama by three.
Missouri - With one exception, Missouri has favoured the winner every year since 1904. Dems in the cities, Republicans in the rural areas.
Latest poll: McCain by seven.
Colorado - Although the Rocky Mountain state has gone Republican in the last two elections, the Democrats are convinced they can snatch it, and are holding their convention there in August to help with the push.
Latest poll: Obama by two.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls currently favours Obama by just under seven points. In the Betfair next president market, Obama is at [1.52], McCain at [3.2].
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