US Politics / Ari Last / 04 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Only once in the past forty years has the State of North Carolina voted a Democrat into office and that was for fellow South Easterner Jimmy Carter in 1976. What's going to happen this time round? Ali Last tells all...

Originating from Hawaii, Barack Obama can't claim to be a neighbour of North Carolina but that hasn't stopped him turning into the favourite to win the 15 electoral votes on offer, from what has historically been a hub of staunch Republican support.

North Carolina, renowned for its varied landscape, climate and demographic has been the focus of much Democratic campaigning in recent months. The Obama camp's insistence on investing a vast amount of time and money into the area was viewed by many as a gamble, however it is now looking like it could pay off, handsomely.

The Republicans will tell you that it's a calculated risk while the Democrats will label it as over confidence. The decision by McCain to practically ignore Republican strongholds like North Carolina, thus allowing Obama the full attention of voters in the hope that the latter's expensive efforts would end up being wasted on loyal Republican die-hards, could backfire spectacularly if the Democrats manage to snare thousands of disenchanted voters who are currently feeling ignored.

Not since 1992 has a Democratic candidate put such emphasis on their campaign in North Carolina. Back then it was Bill Clinton, and although Obama would be well aware that Clinton went on to lose the State, he will also know that the losing margin on that occasion was a mere 20,000 votes. A figure that the Democrats will be been more then confident of turning around.

An interesting figure that will make the 20,000 winning margin of 1992 seem even more retrievable is that in this year alone North Carolina has signed up 600,000 new registered voters with half of them claiming to be Democrats and a third labelling themselves as Independents.

All this means that of the six million allowed to vote in the State, 45% are believed to be Democrats compared to 32% who are thought to be Republican. On paper there seems to only be one winner however what happens on polling day often goes against the so called stats constantly being churned out in the run up to elections.

It's for these reasons that most commentators are as of yet undecided and unwilling to call the winner of the state. Betfair customers on the other hand are proving to be more willing to leap off the fence. A democratic win can be backed at odds of 1.69 while a Republican victory is the clear second favourite with odds of 2.44 available.

Figures like that could see Democrats getting carried away, however North Carolina's unwavering support for Republican candidates in recent times cannot and should not be ignored, and it is John McCain's hope that come election day, the fear of change and the desire for continuity will plant itself firmly within all of those Republicans toying with the idea of switching sides.

FACTS:

Capital - Raleigh

Population - 9,061,032 (10th in USA)

Land Area - 53,865 Sq mi (28th in USA)

Governor - Mike Easley (Dem)

Admission to Union - November 21st 1789