US Politics / Mike Robb / 04 November 2008 / Leave a comment

If John McCain loses Georgia he has no chance of winning the election. We take a look at what's what...

One of the original 13 colonies that revolted against British rule, Georgia has been part of the American dream since the beginning. It is the ninth most populous state in the United States with 10 million inhabitants and is located in what many would term the start of the 'Deep South'. Bordered by Florida to the south, South Carolina to the east and Alabama - to many the definition of a red state - to the west, it looks, on the map at least, that this should be an easy call: it is a republican state.

More than a slight glance at a map of the United States can tell you this. In only three of the past 11 presidential elections since 1960 has Georgia voted for a Democrat over a Republican. They opted for Bush in both 200 and 2004, and went with Republican Bob Dole in 1996 over Bill Clinton. The overall story is that Georgia is a state any Republican with presidential aspirations just has to win, plain and simple.

Looking at it from a macro level, if Georgia doesn't vote Republican then the more moderate states, particularly the battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida and Missouri, are never going to. If a candidate cannot persuade a state with such proven Conservative tendencies then they cannot hold any realistic chance of gaining the keys to the White House.

The current political dispersion of key offices reflects this opinion. Both senators are republican, the governor is republican (saying that, however, the last time Georgia elected a republican governor was in 1872) and both houses of the Georgia State Legislature are controlled by the republicans. In all, every political institution of note that Georgia voters can vote for is currently republican. John McCain cannot let this change.

The demographics offer some hope for Obama. 35% of the state's population is non-white, groups that should come out strong for the Democrat, and with the Obama campaign's impressive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort it could be ripe for a change. Take note, however, this is a factor to be extremely wary of. You often hear political pundits talking about the importance of the weather in elections and Georgia offers a Grade-A lesson why. The entire state receives 'moderate to heavy' rainfall, and what keeps voters indoors? Rain.

Delving deeper into the stats you will find that the heaviest rain is in the northern parts of the state where the most populous regions are located, particularly Atlanta. The southern parts of the state, which has half the average rainfall of the north, is largely rural, and rural equals republican.

These are the kind of factors you need to keep an eye on when betting state-by-state. Little indications that might give you an edge in the market are going to be key. If you wake up on Election Day and see that it's a sunny day with a cool breeze (perhaps unlikely for November, but you never know) then backing Obama at the current price of [3.65] would be tempting. If it's torrential rain then [1.25] on McCain could be a sound investment for smaller returns.

All in all, Georgia should not be in-play come Election Day. If it is, McCain will lose overall. But then that's no fun for the betting!

This year's betting: (Click to bet)
Georgia State Betting
Georgia State Handicap Betting
Georgia Senate Race Betting

Important information

- Timezone: GMT -5

- Polls open: 11AM GMT

- Polls close: 11PM GMT

- Abbreviation: GA

- Electoral College votes: 15

Demographics

- White: 65.8%

- Black: 29.9%

- Other: 4.3%

Political history

- Senators: Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson (both Republican)

- Governor: Sonny Perdue (Republican)

- 2004 voted for: Bush

Other stats

- Population: 9.4 million

- State nickname: Peach State

- State capital: Atlanta

- Most famous offspring: Ray Charles, Martin Luther King Jr, Otis Redding, Burt Reynolds, Dean Rusk

- Strange fact: It is illegal to carry an ice cream cone in your back pocket on a Sunday