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US Election Odds: McCain still no wiser about who he'll be fighting

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McCain looks the most electable at the moment as the Democrats look all up in the air. Chicken Dinner explain...

It's the question that's tearing John McCain and his Republican strategists in half: which candidate should they fear most? Shrillary Clinton or Obama the Alarmer? The majority of Democratic and Republican voters believe that Obama is the far stronger candidate against McCain. The Real Clear Politics average of polls can't decide either - they have McCain ahead of Obama by +0.2%, and tied with Clinton. Betfair still favours Obama (in first place at [2.14]), but at [2.72] McCain is ready to pounce. Currently on a "victory" tour around the states, what does McCain need to do to win?

1. Prove to people he is not George W Bush

As soon as McCain clinched the Republican nomination pictures of him hugging and kissing the President on the cheek quickly circulated the internet. McCain has never been personally that close to Bush, but he was heavily involved with formulating Bush's disastrous Iraq policy and the association has persistently haunted him. Besides the economy, Iraq is the big stinking manure heap of this election, and all candidates are obliged to put some clear fresh air between them and it.

2. Pray the Democrats carry their bitter little contest into August

The Democrat chairman, Howard Dean, has urged his party to choose a candidate before July 1st for fear of handing the presidency to McCain on a silver platter. But who cares what he thinks? An ugly battle at the party's convention in Denver this August could torpedo the Democrats' chances. According to a Gallup poll, 28 per cent of Clinton's supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama was made the nominee, while 19 per cent of Obama' supporters said they would back McCain over Clinton. Meow!

3. Keep a lid on his "unruly passions"

McCain has openly discussed "unruly passions of youth" and has even joked about his reputation as an "alpha geezer". In English, this refers to rumours of an alleged affair with a lobbyist, and his party organisers are worried there is more to come. His reputedly volcanic temper is also a problem, as glimpsed on a prickly David Letterman appearance this week.

So...?

With Obama rattled by the unwanted comments of his crazy priest, and Hillary badly busted for lying about being sprayed with bullets on a trip to the Balkans several years ago (and not helped by comparing herself to Rocky), the Democrats are getting their knickers in such a twist they are even starting to mutter about Al Gore as a potential candidate.

But the McCain team is also under no illusions about the financial and political power of the opposition, noting the huge turnouts in Democratic primaries and the spectacular sums of money raised so far by both Clinton and Obama. However, McCain has the ability to make Obama look like a child in terms of depth and experience, and given Clinton's polarizing effect on independents, he'd be able to draw back wavering Republican voters. At the moment he looks far more electable than his opponents.

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