US Politics / Mike Robb / 05 March 2008 / Leave a comment

Democrats fight on as McCain secures the Republican nomination. Will this give the 71-year-old the vital campaigning head start he needs to close the gap? Mike Robb takes a look...

Hillary Clinton might be claiming she's the comeback kid but Barack Obama is still the [1.38] favourite to secure the Democratic nomination on Betfair, with Clinton at [3.75]. Obama has traded as short as [1.1] to win while Clinton was matched at [7.4], and although the contest now looks much tighter than that there can be no doubting Obama remains the hot favourite with Betfair customers.

By contrast John McCain has successfully secured the Republican nomination despite trading as high as 35-1 earlier in his campaign. He is still available to back at [1.02] if you want to buy up some money, but remember that this market will not be settled until the nomination is official following the party's convention later in the year.

McCain remains the second favourite in the Next President market at [2.9] behind Obama who has lengthened from odds-on to [2.32] favourite. Clinton remains in third place at [5.1].

Despite winning the two crucial contests in Texas and Ohio last night Hillary Clinton is still the outsider in the race for the Democratic nomination. Whether or not she can maintain the momentum through to the Pennsylvania Primary on 22nd April remains to be seen and I wouldn't be surprised if some kind of deal was struck before then to prevent McCain stealing a march in the overall Presidential campaign.

It is noteworthy that McCain has gradually been gaining ground in the Next President market and if the Democratic contest is not settled until convention, as many pundits are now touting as a serious possibility, then we will almost certainly see the two parties go into the election proper as joint favourites, or at the very least too close to call.

Worst case scenario for the Democrats is that the infighting gets so bad that McCain just sits by and watches his numbers go up without actually doing anything himself. Whether or not the Democrats will be able to stop this from happening remains to be seen, but I certainly cannot see any possibility of this between now and the Pennsylvania Primary on 22nd April which is still a month and a half away, giving McCain a head start in national campaigning in itself.

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Tags: Barack Obama, Democrats, election odds, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, politics betting, Republicans