US Election Odds: Democrats in front but it's not going to be plain sailing come November

US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 15 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Chicken Dinner are used to having a bet on elections and here they tell us why we should be backing the Democrats to win in November...

We're half way there and at last some of the gigantic egos involved have accepted defeat and dropped out. Brownie points go to the Republicans for sensibly plumping for John McCain, the only candidate the polls say is capable of keeping the White House out of Democratic hands. The Democrat nomination process is still grinding on, with Senators Clinton and Obama locked in a dead heat, and political strategists deeply divided as to which would make the better opponent. But what chance does McCain currently stand against the Dems, and which candidate should he fear more?

Democrats vs Republicans

Participation has so far been vastly greater in Democratic primaries and caucuses than on the Republican side - an indicator that whoever is put up as the Democratic candidate is very likely to be elected (Betfair puts the Democrats at [1.5] to be the next party elected to office). Eleven million Americans have cast ballots for Republican candidates, while more than 15 million have voted for Democratic ones. Democrats even outpolled Republicans by 20% in South Carolina, itself a candidate for most conservative state in the nation.

In polls, voters express preference for Democrats over Republicans on almost every issue surveyed, including those in which the Republicans traditionally consider themselves most expert, such as taxes, ethics and "competence". However, McCain has some Democrat leanings himself, which gives the Republicans an outside chance at 2.98, especially if the Democrat base becomes fractured by bitter Hillary/Obama divisions.

Obama vs McCain

Today's average of polls on Realclearpolitics.com shows Barack Obama beating John McCain by 47.4% to 43.4%, whereas Hillary Clinton lags by 46.6% to 45.6%. This makes Obama the favourite, at [2.0] on Betfair, to be the next president. He's fast picking up momentum, but it won't be easy. A McCain-Obama race would force voters to wrestle with a provocative choice - idealism vs experience. Or alarming inexperience vs unnerving old age. Remember, while Obama was still at junior school, McCain was being tortured in a Vietnamese POW camp. And Obama has only been a senator for three years, half of which he has spent campaigning to be president. Then again, one of the most experienced presidents in recent history (Nixon) also proved to be the most disastrous.

Clinton vs McCain

Hillary Clinton is currently suffering from "backwards slide" after a week in which she sacked her campaign manager, had to lend her own campaign $5 million, and saw her Super Tuesday advantage wiped out (Betfair currently has her third favourite to be next president at [5.7], and she's [3.85] to win the Democratic Nomination). But Mrs Clinton has not done badly when the underdog in this campaign (in New Hampshire and Nevada especially), and she's better positioned politically, too.

McCain has appeal across the political spectrum, whereas Obama is limited to liberals, centrists and affluent independents. Presidentialpolls.com shows that Obama vs McCain head-to-head would result in Obama winning in New York, California, New Jersey, Michigan and Iowa, but with the rest of the nation firmly behind McCain (polls, it must be said, have not been the forecaster's most dependable assistant in this race.)

As the economy sputters, however, the better Mrs Clinton's chances are becoming (59% of those earning below $50,000 go for Clinton against 33% for Obama). Now, however, would be a good time to get on Hillary, as she is still fancied to win the big Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4, which would swing the pendulum back her way.

So Democrats, then?

Probably, but the surging excitement of a revitalized McCain is a threat. The question of vice presidents has also started to creep into the equation. McCain could pick a social conservative like Huckabee who has the Obama-like ability to speak directly to voters, or right-of-centre Democrat Joe Lieberman, creating a real fusion ticket. McCain could also assuage concerns about his age by promising just to serve one term. The Dems still hold the whip hand, just don't expect a cake walk.

Click here to go to the Betfair Politics Zone