US Politics / Mike Robb / 11 February 2008 / 3 Comments

Betfair's Mike Robb takes us through the Virginia, Maryland and District of Columbia contests tomorrow night

One week on from Super Tuesday and no end appears in sight for the Democrats. Barack Obama is 27 delegates behind Clinton overall but is building on his momentum by picking up states while Clinton is not. Furthermore, the margins of victory - by more than 30 points in both Washington and Nebraska on Saturday - has taken many by surprise.

At the same time, Clinton's campaign manager, Solis Doyle, has been replaced, and a win looks unlikely in any of the upcoming contests. In fact, it seems difficult to predict a Clinton victory until March 4th primaries when she will be in with good chances in Ohio and Texas. With more than three weeks between then and now Obama has the opportunity to build unstoppable momentum starting with Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia tomorrow.

Virginia:
Barack Obama is the overwhelming [1.02] favourite to win the here with decent money available if you want to back him at those short odds. Five polls have been carried out in the state since Super Tuesday and all put him far ahead of Hillary Clinton, the closest margin being 15 per cent.

The state is 75% white and so victory in Virginia adds to the expulsion of any murmurings of Obama as the black-only candidate, and a strong margin of victory here could be spun into exceptionally bad news for Clinton, depending on how strongly she finishes in second.

John McCain is [1.05] favourite to win the Republican race, with polls placing him a minimum of 18 points clear of nearest rival Mike Huckabee.

Delegates at stake:
Democrats: 83
Republicans: 63

Interesting fact about Virginia:
The Pentagon, in Arlington, Virginia, has twice as many bathrooms as is necessary. When it was built in the 1940s, the state of Virginia still had segregation laws requiring separate toilet facilities for blacks and whites.

Maryland:
It is a similar story in Maryland with Obama [1.01] to win. The state is 65% white and 30% black, so it would seem that the white male voters - a demographic with which he has been particularly strong so far - will win it for Obama here. All polling carried out in February shows double-digit leads for Obama, though if New Hampshire is anything to go by this should not necessarily be taken as a guarantor of victory.

The Republican race sees a similar favourite in John McCain, who is [1.04] favourite to win with Mike Huckabee in second on [6.4]. Polls have given McCain anything between eight and 39 point leads, and so you would be forgiven for taking this one as done-and-dusted.

Delegates at stake:
Democrats: 70
Republicans: 37

Interesting fact about Maryland:
The first ever umbrella factory was built in Maryland and the state has no naturally occurring lakes (at all)

District of Columbia:
With only 15 (D) and 19 (R) delegates at stake, Washington DC is not the biggest scalp in the primary calendar, and with no real polling having been done in DC as a result it seems difficult to say for sure what the situation is. The betting markets, however, tell us that Barack Obama is hot favourite to win here with little chance for Clinton, who is currently in third place behind 'any other'.

60% of the population is black in DC and Obama has successfully courted this demographic in the races up until now, so you would expect him to win here easily to make it a not-so-Super Tuesday clean sweep. He is currently [1.03] to win in DC, with Clinton [25.0] and 'any other' [16.0].

Delegates at stake:
Democrats: 15
Republicans: 19

Interesting fact about DC:
The original copy of the Declaration of Independence is lost. The copy stored in the in Washington D.C. is what is referred to as a holograph. That is a term for a handmade copy of a document and is not the same as a laser produced hologram.

Click here for the new Betfair Politics Zone

Tags: Barack Obama, DC Primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Maryland Primary, politics betting, Virginia Primary