United States Election Odds: Indiana state betting profile

US Politics / Ari Last / 04 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Back in April while contesting the Democratic leadership run off with Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama described Indiana as a "tiebreaker". Six months down the line, and the state knows as the "Cross-Roads of America" is playing its part once more as a key barometer or how the Presidential Election is going to swing.

It's a sign of the growing strength of the Obama campaign that predicting the vote of the State of Indiana has become a dangerous game. A Republican stronghold for a many a year, the home of Motor-racing is set to play a vital role in which of the two candidates emerges first past the White House' chequered flag.

Since 1900 the State has voted Democrat only four times and it's been over forty years since a Democratic candidate reaped the benefits from Indiana's vote, but to the dismay of John McCain and his dwindling campaign funds, the Republican Senator is going to have to spend time and money defending his territory from the grasps of an increasingly confident and opportunistic Barack Obama.

Good news for the Democrats but before they start seeing the mid-west home of roughly six and half million through Blue tinted spectacles, it's important to point out that according to the polls and the Betfair Market, as of this moment Indiana is still expected to retain its Republican Status, just.

With under two weeks to go until election night, it is widely accepted that there are around nine states still up for grabs, Indiana is one of them and is in fact one of three along with North Dakota and West Virginia that observers feel will be the biggest scalps should they turn Blue.

The battleground that is now Indiana acts as a stern riposte to the cynics who claim that Obama's main weapon in this election is the colour of his skin. Under 10% of the State's population are Black, ensuring that the Obama's growing popularity in this predominantly white and historically Republican region will delight the Hawaiian and all of those believers in his integrity, vision and intelligence.

Another key factor cited for Indiana's apparent change of heart is the fact that as a major manufacturing town, many are reeling from recent job losses. September's unemployment rate was 6.2%, which is nearly a 20 year high and the looming threat of troubles on the horizon could force many factory workers to pluck for the fiscal skills of Obama over the fighting skills of McCain.

In 2004 George Bush annihilated John Kerry in Indiana however his tub-thumping victory took place a in a state which had the lowest voter turnout (57.4%) and this, to an ambitious and forward thinking Democratic machine represented an opportunity.

The mood amongst Indiana Republicans is that throughout this campaign their loyalty has been taken for granted by Senator McCain, while at the same time, the Democratic PR effort in the region has been highly visible, targeted and effective.

In Indiana there is talk of a late, last ditch campaigning attempt from McCain & Co aimed at securing a vote that for years their party has never lost any sleep over. Yet the momentum in the State seems to be firmly with Obama, and backing the Democrats at the current Betfair price of 2.42 represents pretty good value.

It wouldn't be hyperbole to describe an Obama win in Indiana is colossal, yet regardless of who wins in the end, the sheer fact that this Republican stranglehold has been transformed into a key battleground state is symbolic of the strides the Democrats have made in recent times, in contrast to the backward steps taken by their struggling counterparts.

Stats:

Population - 6,345,289.00 - 15th Highest in the US

Inhabitant Nickname - "Hoosiers"

State Capital - Indianapolis

Famous Sons - Michael Jackson, Axl Rose, John Wayne

Admission to Union - December 11th 1816

Governor - Mitch Daniels (Rep)