Election odds: The Republican race so far

US Politics / Mike Robb / 15 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Republican race is even more competitive than the Democrats with four candidates in with a real chance of victory. We take a look at what has happened in the Betfair market so far...

Iowa

Mitt Romney took the biggest hit in Iowa, finishing a poor nine points behind winner Mike Huckabee despite spending a huge amount of money in the state. Huckabee was the big winner on the day with a five point bounce on Betfair.

1st December 2008 to close of Iowa polls:

McCain +10
Giuliani -2
Romney -12
Huckabee +9

New Hampshire

Following McCain's New Hampshire victory many hailed a 'remarkable comeback'. The Betfair market, however, was showing the gradual increase of support for the oldest of the four candidates since the turn of the year. Despite finishing fourth in Iowa, McCain's place at the front of the Republican field continued to grow on Betfair - he came into 2008 on 22% but going into the Michigan primary he has nearly doubled that lead, currently at 42% with second place Mitt Romney on 20%.

Summary

The significant trends are the demise of Rudy Giuliani, who has had poor support in the contests so far, and the gradual rise of McCain. Mitt Romney is seeing increased support going into Michigan and a win there could really ignite this race ahead of South Carolina next week.

For more information, data or comment e-mail michael.robb@betfair.com