The Morning View: Some positive movement in the Betfair markets for John McCain

US Politics / Mike Robb / 01 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair users appear to be backing McCain in a number of key markets, particularly Missouri. It may not be much, but it's something...

As has been well documented in previous posts and in the media as a whole, Missouri will be central to this election. America's number one bellwether state is vital from a prediction point of view simply because it embodies the nation as a whole so accurately.

Barack Obama has drifted out to [1.9] in the Show Me State, John McCain is [2.0]. In other words it is very nearly 50:50 there and all is to play for.

In the overall market, too, things are showing hints of turning in favour of the Republican. Barack Obama is now [1.15], a slight move from yesterday's [1.13]. Although this move in itself is not particularly significant, it is the first sign, coupled with the move in Missouri, that Betfair users are starting to think they have overestimated the chances of Barack Obama's chance of victory.

This overall picture is repeated in other key states. In Florida the gap has closed around 15 percent since yesterday, another key state on which the election could depend. In Georgia, the traditional Republican heartland, John McCain has solidified his position significantly over the past week and is now a strong [1.36] favourite to hold it.

Likewise, Indiana now looks far stronger for McCain at [1.62]. Barack Obama led here a week ago but things have now moved full circle back to John McCain.

The one state that has not replicated the same vibe seen in the rest of the Betfair markets is Ohio, where Barack Obama continues to hold a very strong lead with no sign of a turn for the worst. This could be key - if he wins Ohio it could be very difficult for John McCain to get enough Electoral College votes elsewhere to get 'over the top' with 271 College votes.

Overall it's positive, if minimally positive, news for John McCain. Is it a case of too little too late? Only time will tell - it's going to be a nervous few days for Team Obama.