US Politics / The Betfair Contrarian / 03 March 2011 / 10

Who will take on Barack Obama for the 2012 Presidential election? Betfair punters expect Mitt Romney to get the Republican nomination while some have even speculated that Donald Trump could have a crack at the White House. The Betfair Contrarian explains why everybody's favourite Alaskan is his choice...

The Contrarian has proven in the past that he's even more adept at making money out of politics than an expense-fiddling MP, his latest triumph coming when opposing David Miliband at [1.43] in last year's Labour leadership battle. He's spotted another big opportunity - backing Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for the 2012 election at the huge price of [10.0]. Wondering why you should put your money on someone with as many critics as fans? Let the Contrarian explain...

"The Republican Party leadership vacuum"

This was a term coined by Washington Post journalist Dana Milbank in reaction to billionaire Donald Trump [46.0] tearing down the house at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference when he delivered a speech hinting at an unlikely push for the presidency. Milbank concluded that the positive reaction to a figure as politically uninvolved as Trump, whose views far from mirror those of the Republican party, demonstrates the lack of credible leaders. Such a situation lends itself to opting for a candidate that, while potentially divisive, has the strength of character and conviction in their beliefs to win voters round, boxes that even Palin's enemies would concede that she emphatically ticks.

There are lessons in the Democrats' 2008 success

Barack Obama's landslide victory illustrated that a relatively inexperienced, charismatic politician with a touch of celebrity status is sometimes more likely to capture the imagination of the public than uninspiring establishment veterans. The Republicans' 2008 choice John McCain was dubbed "McSame" and dismissed as a George W Bush clone, while the current 2012 favourite Mitt Romney [4.5] has fallen victim to nicknames like Mittbot in reference to his perceived robotic delivery.

Palin is the antithesis of Obama

Obama's landslide surge to the White House and subsequent rather flat performance has left the electorate underwhelmed, and opened the door for the Republicans' unprecedented mid-term gains, for which Palin earned much credit. Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama's shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there's nobody better suited to that role than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback of his tenure. She also has the invaluable experience of having been a key player in the team that opposed him last time. That defeat will have been hugely educational, much as Richard Nixon benefitted from the lessons of his 1960 loss to JFK to see off George McGovern by record-breaking margins in 1972.

Allegations of widespread unpopularity are unproven

Palin constantly complains about biased reporting from what she labels the "lamestream media" and her supporters are adamant that the press portrayal of her as widely disliked is inaccurate. There could well be substance to that theory, with a national poll at the time of the last election showing that just 19.6 per cent of citizens trust most news media reporting. Evidence of this is her daughter Bristol's showing in the 2010 series of Dancing With the Stars, in which she exceeded expectations to finish third, surviving on five separate occasions despite registering the lowest score, progress that was credited to many Americans warming to Palin senior and therefore voting for the daughter.

Running mates often go on to be presidential candidates

If reality TV voting patterns aren't enough to convince you, there are a fair few examples of running mates, as Palin was for McCain in 2008, going on to stand for the presidency further down the line. Some, like Lyndon Johnson and George Bush I, succeeded victorious candidates, but it is not unheard of for running mates in unsuccessful campaigns to later earn a chance to stand for the big job, with Bob Dole a recent Republican example, battling with Bill Clinton in 1996 having previously been part of a failed Gerald Ford bid.

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1. looney | 03 March 2011

   The Marxist lamestream media has ALREADY driven Palin's negatives to their maximum, and, by declaring her unelectable over and over, they have lowered expectations as far as possible. This is a good position to be in.

   Any Palin strong showing or victory will make the metrosexual MSM dweebs soil their panties. They have already spewed every lie and distortion they can invent, so what will their PANIC produce when she starts winning?

   The MSM has lots of ammo to use on Romney, a filthy rich Mormon whose grandparents were polygamous, or Huckabee, etc.

   They are out of ammo for Palin, who may destroy the scumbag MSM as well as defeat Obama, if he runs.

   5 States are passing laws requiring showing a birth certificate to be on their ballots. Obama does not have a US birth certificate, or he would already have produced it.

   The Kenyan Kommie will bow out gracelessly, and Sarah will have the ultimate Cat Cage Fight to the death!!!

   What are the odds you'll give me on a Palin victory over Hillary?!

2. jim | 03 March 2011

   What is not mentioned here, is that Palin is the ONLY candidate that can stand "toe-to-toe" with Obama as far as celebrity status, the ability to draw huge crowds and enthusiasm from the base. Not to mention, she will soon eclipse the three million friends on Facebook. If only two-thirds of her Facebook friends donated $10 a piece to her campaign, that is a huge warchest to help combat Obama's $1 billion machine.

3. Sonny Phillips | 03 March 2011

   Who is Sarah Palin?
   What is Sarah Palin?

   When the elections get going the lamestream media will not be able to hide her anymore under a bunch of lies and the rest of the American public, those that did not catch the Tea Party wave, will get their first real look at her and she'll shine even brighter than ever. Obummer better hid.

   Anyone that would want to debate her should have their head examined.
   The left fears her and her only. That is the only wise thing that they have going.

4. Bill589 | 04 March 2011

   Sarah Palin is a celebrity, but consider how she earns it. She exposes the damage Obama’s administration is doing to our country and liberty, and she supports the right politicians, and others, to fix our country. Priceless.

   The funny thing, to me anyway, is that some people still say she’s a quitter. IMO, she’s clearly showing great leadership skills, and their talk is just wishful thinking. I know Obama wishes she would quit.

5. Raymond | 04 March 2011

   Those who think about quitting is failure are the ones who have failed. Most of the time, quitter quits for the purpose of further advancing their career. Sarah Palin quitted her job as governor for the purpose of openly pushing conservative movement against Obama. By the way, at most times related to profession and career, those who do not quit are very afraid of challenges of progression and advancement. Most often, they do not have trust and faith on their capabilities and for these reasons, they are afraid of new challenges.

6. Carmelo Junior | 05 March 2011

   No doubts Palin could win the nomination and the presiency. The politico-historical momentum is on her side. Huckabee might be a competition in Iowa, but Sarah can send him packing in New Hamphire and South Carolina.

   Once she clinches the nomination her momentum will be so huge that not even America's first Muslim black president could beat her.

   The question is when will she announce? I predict after her India trip(late April-early June).

   After being a formal presidential candidate and with the momentum that this will carry, she will tour Europe and Israel in September-November 2011. Coming back like a hurricane to take Iowa, New Hamphire and South Carolina by storm. All the rest of the fat,bald and boring white males have no chance.

7. gah | 22 March 2011

   All the polls showing Palin wildly unpopular are bogus. The NRA recently announced that female membership has increased by 20 percent per year since Palin appeared on the national stage; a hunting-fishing-camping organization has noted a significant increase in the number of women involved in these activites, they call it the Palin Effect; in the mid-term elections women voted republican 49 percent, democrat 48 percent, the first time the dems didn't enjoy a big lead among women voters, this is also the Palin Effect; the other day the NY Sun ran an article called the Palin Doctrine, which received over 300,000 views within 48 hours; just about every event she attends gets a maximum capacity crowd; her Facebook is fast approaching 3 million (an increase in 2.3 million since she resigned as governor). There are many more examples that could be added that demonstrates the impact Palin has had, not only on politics, but on society in less than 3 years.

8. Anonymous | 01 April 2011

   Trump 2012

9. anonymous | 22 May 2011

   Palin is a quitter. If she had the leaderships skill, she would STILL be in office in Alaska not in Fox News.

10. dee | 11 July 2011

    Now if only you people would put your money where your mouth is and bet on this. I could make some good coin.

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