US Politics / Ari Last / 04 November 2008 / Leave a comment

The news that the swing State of Ohio is leaning towards a Democratic victory will come as a hammer blow to Senator McCain. After all, no Republican candidate has ever reached the White House without winning in the "Buckeye State".

In terms of land area, Ohio is only the 34th largest State in the U.S but in terms of population it is the 7th biggest and in turn this means that 20 Electoral College votes are on offer, making success in the state critical.

In 2004 President Bush owed his overall triumph there after he overcame rival John Kerry by a mere two percentage points. Had he lost Ohio we would have had President Gore. Another intriguing fact that is sure to be at the forefront of the mind of both candidates is that the last time Ohio backed a loser was in 1960.

Ohio voted Republican on the last two occasions but this time around things seem to be different. The financial crisis has had a major effect on the State's previously thriving manufacturing industry and this seems to be playing into the hands of the Democrats.

It would be suicidal for Obama to admit it, but the economic turmoil could not have happened at a better time for him. The public perception is that the Hawaiian is better equipped to steer the country through the current troubles, and in Ohio, along with several other states, it is this issue that looks like proving the defining factor in voters decision making.

With bustling rural and urban areas, and a varied demographic, Ohio is seen by many as a microcosm of the United States as a whole - a bellwether state. Winning here would give any candidate belief that they possess an appeal to a wide range of voters making the result from this swing state particularly important to both parties.

Once more Obama has outspent his rival when it comes to campaigning. The Democrats have twice as many offices in the region and the party's volunteers have been going into overdrive in recent weeks, desperately attempting to claw back a state that has eluded them so far this millennium.

Much of the news surrounding Ohio in recent weeks has centred on possible voter registration discrepancies. Many of the voters caught up in the furore are Democratic sympathisers although this hasn't seemed to affect traders on Betfair who still believe that Ohio is all set for an Obama win.

A Democratic triumph can be backed at best odds of [1.29] while a Republican victory is being deemed as rather less likely with odds available at [3.6].

A win for Obama would go against the theory held by some that race will play a sizeable role in the State's voting behaviour, with many from Ohio's south believed to be reluctant to vote for a Black President. Obama fared poorly among white voters in his battle with Hilary Clinton and he'll be hoping that, come election day, voters will toss racial prejudiced aside and choose policies and nothing else as the reasons for their choices on the ballot paper.