US Politics / Mike Robb / 06 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Live election betting updates from Super Tuesday will appear here throughout the night, including betting information, election announcements, media alerts and market updates

(All times GMT)

Click here to see the new Betfair Politics Zone

7.54AM
- Still no word on the New Mexico Democratic Caucus, which remains a tight 48% each for Clinton and Obama.

RESULT: Alaska's Republican race was won by Mike Huckabee, who beat John McCain 41% to 37%.

6.56AM
- CNN reporting a 48%/48% tie in New Mexico between Clinton and Obama, and so are unable to call the race at this time.

6.36AM
- Of all those voting in the Democratic primaries (nationwide): 49% went for Clinton and 48% Obama. In other words, it was tight.

- For the Republicans: 40% voted for McCain, 31% for Romney, 21% for Huckabee

6:24AM
RESULT: CNN call Missouri for Barack Obama. 100% of votes are in and counted, so this result is definite. This is a big win for Obama and a good end to the night for him. Just waiting on New Mexico for the Democrats and Alaska for the Republicans now.

6.06AM- It's all gone a bit quiet and we're still waiting on official network confirmations for Missouri and New Mexico for the Democrats, and Alaska for the Republicans

5.46AM
RESULT: Barack Obama wins Alaska, CNN report

5.42AM
- Confusion in Missouri as the BBC reports the race called for Clinton, then taken away from her and given to Obama. Obama [1.03] on Betfair with Clinton available at [23.0], so there can be no doubt as to who the Betfair users think has won.

5.32AM
- CNN: "John McCain is the presumptual nominee of the Republican Party"
- Still no result from the Missouri Democratic Primary

5.27AM
RESULT IN MISSOURI: CNN calls MO for John McCain, narrowly beating Mike Huckabee by 1% and just 4% clear of Mitt Romney. No result for the Democrats yet.

5.26AM
RESULTS IN CALIFORNIA: CNN calls CA for McCain and Clinton, two massive wins for the favourites and bad news for Obama and, particularly, Mitt Romney. For Obama all is not lost as delegates are given out proportionally.

5.14AM
RESULT: CNN calls Arizona for Hillary Clinton

5.13AM
- Barack Obama has taken the lead in Missouri, and now leads by 3,000 votes. It's the race of the night as I predicted! Click here to bet.

5.03AM
RESULT: CNN projects Romney wins Montana

4.55AM
- McCain has a strong early lead in California, leading Mitt Romney by 19%, according to ABC News. In the Democratic race Clinton is well ahead of Barack Obama, leading by over 200,000 votes so far. Interestingly, John Edwards has received 101,000 votes (10%) in the state.

4.52AM
- Missouri is still centre of attention on an extreme knife edge: Clinton leads by 10,000 votes (less than 1%). Click here to bet

4.47AM
- In a typically passionate speech, Obama declares: "Our time has come, our plan is real... And change is coming to America." The guy can certainly speak.

RESULT: During his specch, CNN calls Colorado for Barack Obama

4.43AM
- Barack Obama is making a speech to supporters at his HQ

4.41AM
- McCain praises Huckabee extremely highly in his speech, adding to the rumours that he could be on the McCain ticket. Romney gets a short mention but McCain is speaking like a man who has already won the nomination.

4.37AM
- All eyes are on Missouri at the moment, with exceptionally close races in both parties and nearly all votes in with only around 10% to go.

- John McCain is making a speech to supporters

4.31AM
- MISSOURI: Extremely close three-way tie in Missouri... McCain, Romney and Huckabee all within 4% of each other. Click here to bet on Missouri Republican Primary

4.29AM
RESULT: CNN call Georgia for Mike Huckabee, 42 minutes after AP and long after he was short favourite on Betfair

4.17AM
- With 2% of the vote in, Clinton leads Obama in California by 11%. It's close and there's a long wat to go. Click here to bet.

4.12AM
RESULT: CNN calls Minnesota for Mitt Romney

4.11AM
- Mike Huckabee is being touted as a potential VP for any winner, and the McCain/Huckabee ticket has already been mentioned, especially in light of McCain's poor showing amongst the Republican Party's conservative core. Huckabee is currently [5.0] on Betfair to be the next Vice President of the United States.

Click here to view the Next Vice President market and to bet on Mike Huckabee

4.06AM
- It's neck and neck in Missouri between McCain and Romney. Maybe it's not all over for Mitt yet? Must be close to it though, he must win Missouri or California to warrant carrying on.

3.51AM
RESULT: Romney wins North Dakota

- Clinton is making a speech to supporters in New York City. We are still waiting to hear from Obama.

- California polls close in eight minutes and the lead keeps switching between the two. Click here to view the California Democratic Primary market

3.48AM
RESULT: Associated Press call Georgia for Huckabee
RESULT: FOX call Tennessee for Huckabee

- Huckabee's good night continues with two more states, Georgia is especially impressive. Things are starting to look increasingly bleak for Mitt Romney.

3.41AM
RESULT: CNN calls Arizona for John McCain. At one point this didn't look a certainty but the Senator has carried his home state as his so far perfect night continues.

3.36AM- Mitt Romney is making a speech to supporters and sounds like a broken man. I can see a bit of Howard Dean 2004 in him... Not a good thing for his prospects.

3.35AM- Time to take a step back and look and what's happened tonight so far...

Democrats:
Although Obama started very strongly in Georgia, Hillary Clinton has won all the key states she has needed to so far tonight. Massachusetts was closer than many though, but she still won. Obama needs California - simple as that. If Clinton wins there, and she is currently [1.41] favourite, she will be the hot favourite to go on and secure the nomination.

Obama: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota

Clinton: Arkansas, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Republicans:
The Republican race has gone to plan - McCain has done very well across the board. The other winner is Mike Huckabee who, despite only having won three states outright so far, is doing much better than expected nationally. Mitt Romney is the big loser, not winning anything unexpected and losing West Virginia to Huckabee.

McCain: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma

Romney: Massachusetts, Utah

Huckabee: Arkansas, West Virginia, Alabama

3.30AM
RESULTS: CNN calls Alabama for Mike Huckabee and Minnesota for Obama

3.21AM
RESULTS: CNN calls Connecticut and Kansas for Barack Obama

3.11AM- Huckabee is making a speech live from Arkansas. Hats off to him - he's done well tonight, if not well enough to win. He is currently a remarkable [20.0] to win the nomination, having started out at [150.0].

3.06AM
RESULT: CNN calls caucus state North Dakota for Barack Obama

3.04AM
RESULT: CNN call Oklahoma and its 38 delegates for John McCain

3.03AM- A candidate can lost by 6 points in California but get only 18 delegates less than the winner. It's going to be very interesting what the California result does to the nomination and next president markets, with such complicated rules making it difficult to project just what impact the state will have on the overall standing between the two Senators.

3.00AM
RESULT: Romney takes Utah, CNN projects

2.53AM
RESULT: CNN call Massachusetts and New Jersey for Clinton. No real surprises there. All eyes moving to California and Missouri. Clinton looks to have won Missouri, but it's evens for both in California.

2.44AM
- Mitt Romney has to win a big state soon, reports CNN. It's going to have to be Missouri or California otherwise it's not looking good for the future of his campaign. He is currently [3.4] to win in California and [7.0] in Missouri. It's not looking good for the Mormon ex-Governor of Massachusetts.

2.38AM
RESULT: FOX calls Kansas for Obama. It is all done proportionally so his margin of victory will be important here in deciding how many of the 32 delegates he gets.

2.34AM
- Severe weather reported in Arkansas, will this have any impact on results?

- McCain now said to be struggling in his home state of Arizona, with Romney doing well.

2.31AM
RESULT: CNN call Alabama for Obama - will this bring his price back in in the nomination market? Click here to bet now

2.30AM
- Barack Obama has drifted to [2.54] in the Democratic nomination market as Clinton becomes [1.64] favourite. Not sure how that happened - it is literally a case of blink and you'll miss it!

2.21AM
RESULT: CNN projects New York for John McCain

2.18AM
- Clinton is currently 15-20% ahead in Missouri, my 'state to watch'. Obama must be looking to win Missouri to get a foothold in this race.

- Oklahoma looks close between McCain and Huckabee. Huckabee looks to be performing much better across the board tonight. Even though he most likely will not do well enough to threaten for the nomination, largely thanks to the winner-takes-all system the GOP employ, he is clearly the man taking core Conservative votes away from McCain, as opposed to Romney. Romney needs to start doing something special and soon... McCain is now in to [1.08] to win the nomination.

Click here to bet on the Republican nomination market

2.12AM
California update:

- Democrats: Barack Obama's price has shortened again to [1.6] as he continues to lead in a state he will be desperate to win, and win well, tonight. Click here to bet.

- Republicans: John McCain is [1.35] favourite for the Republican Primary here, with Mitt Romney currently trading at [3.5]. Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Politics Forecasting Unit was on the BBC and on our very own Betfair Radio earlier today pointing out that Romney had been leading in California over the last few days by up to 8%, and so his price seems large in light of that. Obama's good early showing could have an impact as more people decide to cast late votes, but above all else there are still a little under four hours until California polls close, however, so it's all to play for.

Click here to be on the California Presidential Primary

2.04AM
RESULT: FOX call Delaware for Obama. A good result for him.

2AM
RESULT: FOX call New York for Clinton

1.55AM
- Barack Obama has drifted out to [1.83] in the California market, having been traded as short as [1.2] earlier in the night

1.46AM
- CNN call Delaware for McCain, 12 minutes after FOX and well after Betfair.

1.44AM
- "Romney needs Georgia", says CNN. Well he's not getting it, so why not get laying? Click here to view the market

1.38AM
- The Democratic 'most states won' market is seeing some action tonight: Clinton v Obama

1.35AM
RESULT: FOX call Delaware for McCain, largely as expected.

1.33AM
RESULT: CNN call Tennessee for Clinton, which will come as a blow to Obama.

- Democratic nomination market now back at [2.0] for both candidates... These markets are hugely volatile tonight.

1.30AM
RESULTS: Huckabee and Clinton win Arkansas, both as expected.

1.28AM
- Barack Obama's price in the Democratic nomination market is drifting back out a little, now at [1.97] when it had been in well below [1.8]. Clinton is starting to perform a bit better as she picks up some states she expected. More and more talk is focussing on California again, for both parties, as the whole night looks to hinge on the Golden State.

- Obama is also drifting in the next president market, now at [2.52].

1.10PM
RESULT: CNN call New Jersey for John McCain as expected, who secures all 52 delegates

1.09AM- Republican nomination market: John McCain [1.14] lengthening slightly as Romney and, especially, Mike Huckabee are putting in stronger showings than expected. Huckabee looks like he could take Georgia and in Romney's home state of Massachusetts, where McCain had campaigned a lot, it looks like Romney will win a solid victory.

1AM
PROJECTED RESULTS (CNN)
Massachusetts - Mitt Romney
Illinois - McCain/Obama
Oklahoma - Clinton
Conecticut - McCain

All others too close to call.

12.59AM
- Nine states polls close in one minute, expect lots of projections from the networks

12.55AM:
RESULT: FOX call Alabama for Obama

- It's looking VERY close in Georgia between McCain and Huckabee, less than 1% in it

12.46AM
- Next president market update: Obama marching on

Obama: [2.42]
McCain: [3.2]
Clinton: [3.7]

12.37AM
- MSNBC ask if New Jersey is a 'bellweather state' tonight, one that will decide how well Clinton is to do. I could have answered that questions for free: "no"

12.30AM
- CNN project 12 Obama delegates to 5 for Clinton in Georgia. A good result for Obama.

12.26AM
- MSNBC/CNN/Fox predict Obama to win Georgia by huge numbers. Bet now in the Democratic market.

12.20AM
- Just a reminder of the key states with polls closing at 1AM: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee

- Remember to keep an eye out on the official Georgia results coming in. A big win for Obama here (ie well over 10%) then he's in for a good night, under 10% and Clinton can expect to do well.

12.03AM
- Obama now [2.8] favourite in Next President market. This market is looking to be seriously volatile tonight.

- Obama now [1.76] to win Democratic nomination in light of Georgia win. This could be an overreaction as Georgia was a state that he was expected and had to win tonight.

12.00AM (6th February)
- Polls are now closed in Georgia, the first key state in tonight's action. At this moment in time the Betfair market predicts Obama for the Democrats [1.01] and a close one between Huckabee and McCain for the Republicans, Huckabee slightly ahead. He needs to win this state to have any chance to do anything tonight.

RESULT: CNN projects Obama to beat Clinton in Georgia, but says it's a three man race in the Republicans between McCain, Huckabee and Romney.

11.51PM
- MSNBC: "If Obama wins by less than 10% in Georgia we know it's a bad night"... Everyone get ready for Georgia results, polls closing momentarily.

11.48PM
Check out the California graph in the Betfair Politics Zone: Obama and Clinton are moving apart

11.43PM
- Less than 20 minutes until polls close on the East Coast and it's all looking up in the air.

- All the talk seems to be negative for Mitt Romney in the Republican race: "As long as we can hold on through today it'll be a good result" is the general theme on MSNBC.

- Barack Obama still favourite in California Democratic Primary at [1.41]

11.22PM
- Huckabee says he's "confident" of winning the Republican nomination. If anyone out there supports his claim you can get [150.0] on Betfair... I'll leave the decision to you...

11.02PM
- "Expect early results within an hour", says CNN

- Obama and Clinton now evens in nomination market while McCain favourite in next president market again... When things really get going these markets are going to go nuts.

11.00PM
- CNN's live and dedicated coverage with that nice white-bearded man (Wolf Blitzer) starting now. It's good: Sky channel 506.

10.53PM
- Barack Obama is now favourite in the Democratic nomination market, the first time in a while. He has also taken the lead in the next president market.

10.43PM
- The FOX News homepage is showing an image of the battle of the celebrity endorsements. Make what you will of this:

Obama: Oprah Winfrey, Matt Damon, George Clooney, Robert De Niro, Scarlett Johansson, Ken Burns

Clinton: Madonna, 50 Cent, Barbra Streisand, Jerry Springer, Quincy Jones, Stephen Spielberg, Rob Reiner, Jenna Jameson

What does this all mean for the betting markets? Absolutely nothing.

10.18PM
- Next President market: an almost perfectly balanced three-way tie now... McCain is [3.05], Obama [3.1] and Clinton [3.15].

10.10PM- Lots of networks reporting unusually high turnouts. It's difficult to say who this benefits the most, depending on where the increased turnout is coming from. If independents are turning out more than normal then it's good news for Obama in states with open primaries (ie, where you don't have to be a registered Democrat or Republican to vote today.)

- FOX just interviewed someone with a Bush bumper sticker from 2004 who was out to vote for Obama. Is the tide of change turning? He is [2.06] on Betfair at the moment, which is roughly the same as he has been for the last couple of hours.

9.45PM
- It's all gone a bit quiet. Mitt Romney is now in to [2.58] to win in California, in from [3.2] an hour ago. Is it happening for Romney in the Golden State?

- Did anyone just see Arnie's speech supporting McCain? How did he become California Governor again?

8.45PM
Super Tuesday is finally here and the betting markets are extremely active. Here are the highlights as we start the night:

- McCain is [2.82] favourite in the Next President market. This is the first time he (or any Republican) has led. It will be interesting to see how this changes as the night goes on - if one of the two Democrats can pull ahead we can surely expect McCain's price to drift as Obama or Clinton (who are both currently [3.15]) take to the front of the field.

- In the outright market Clinton and Obama are now trading around the same price, [1.94] and [2.04] respectively. Obama really is making a good go of it!

- For the Republicans, John McCain is now a strong [1.09] favourite for the nomination, and Betfair punters clearly think he has it in the bag. Will this change as the night goes on? Romney is available at [11.0].

- Barack Obama has taken a commanding lead in California, and is now [1.53] to win there. California is the key state for both parties tonight, with Obama and Romney badly needing to pick up good results. For the Republicans, McCain is well ahead in the market but some polls have given Romney a lead of up to eight points in the state - surely the [3.2] he is at is too high?

- Massachusetts: it looked at one point like Obama was gaining ground in this state, but it would appear that was short lived with Clinton now the strong [1.06] favourite. Obama did trade as short as [2.0] at one point, while Clinton reached a high of [1.5]. The graph on the Betfair Politics Zone shows the movement well.

7.14PM
RESULT: CNN project Mike Huckabee has won West Virginia by 52% to Mitt Romney in 47%. This was somewhat expected, though it took McCain supporters to switch to Huckabee to stop Romney. (9.15PM: The result has now been confirmed by MSNBC, ABC, BBC and Sky News.)

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mitt Romney, politics betting, presidential election 2008, Super Tuesday