Presidential Primaries: Betting outlook for the week ahead

US Politics / Mike Robb / 14 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair's Michael Robb takes a look at the week ahead across the pond

Few people could have expected such a turbulent opening to the presidential elections and the drama looks set to continue this week. For the Democrats, initial favourite Hillary Clinton looked to be in trouble after a poor third place in the opening Iowa caucus, but a stunning against-all-odds (and against all reasoned analysis) victory in New Hampshire propelled her back into poll position. Likewise for the Republicans a man who had "no chance" a few months ago now leads a field from which the prospect of a realistic challenger emerging seems remote.

So what impact will the next seven days have on the races in both parties and what will be the implications for the betting markets? There are two contests to look out for this week - the Michigan Primary on Tuesday and the Nevada Caucus on Saturday.

Michigan: looks good for Clinton, toss-up for Republicans

Hillary Clinton is given a 95 per cent ([1.05]) chance of winning the Michigan Primary for the Democrats, with Barack Obama on 4% ([25.0]). Although New Hampshire proved that the polls, odds and 'expert' opinion are not the be-all-and-end-all, everything points to a decisive victory for Clinton in the Great Lakes state as a result of the controversy surrounding the denial of Michigan to send delegates to convention, which effectively rules the Democratic contest pointless.

That aside, Clinton would always have won here anyway. The difference to New Hampshire is that Clinton has been the hot favourite to win since the market opened, whereas Obama only became favourite for New Hampshire after his triumph in Iowa. If Clinton doesn't win on Tuesday then I will officially declare the rest of the primary season as completely unpredictable - quite literally.

The Republican contest promises far greater excitement, with John McCain the slight favourite at 52.6% ([1.9]) over nearest rival Mitt Romney 43.5% ([2.3]). Mike Huckabee appears to be out of the running on 7.5% ([13.5]) and Rudy Giuliani, who led early polls here, is given just a 0.7% chance ([150]).

Having spent so much money in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney's campaign needs a victory here - if nothing else to remind electorates in upcoming states that he is a serious candidate in with a shout of victory - and he could be the best bet of the week.

Nevada: 50/50 for both parties

Nevada - the home of the World Series of Poker, Las Vegas and over 150,000 slot machines - lives up to its reputation in Saturday's caucuses, with the race in both parties remaining anyone's gamble.

For the Democrats, Barack Obama leads with 54% ([1.85]), though Clinton is not far behind with 52.6% ([1.9]). Obama has not led in any opinion poll in the state since polling began last year, and so his price appears somewhat short.

For the Republicans it really is open with Mitt Romney 55% ([1.8]) favourite, ahead of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mike Huckabee, who are all close behind.

Having predicted the New Hampshire result last week so bullishly as, 'not being a case of whether Obama will win but by how much', I will be taking a back seat this week and just watching. Probably.