Presidential Primaries: Betting outlook for the week ahead

US Politics / Mike Robb / 28 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Michael Robb takes a look ahead to the Florida primaries...

With Barack Obama winning in South Carolina as expected on Saturday all eyes turn to Florida tomorrow. Like in Michigan, both the Democrats and Republicans have penalised the state for moving their elections ahead of Super Tuesday on February 5th. The Democrats have banned the Florida delegates from voting at the convention (in other words, they have ruled that the votes from Florida effectively mean nothing) while the Republicans have halved their impact.

Nevertheless the primaries are hugely important, especially for the Republicans. A win here could save a campaign or give one candidate the all-important edge going into Super Tuesday. Rudy Giuliani has staked all on doing well in Florida but it now looks increasingly unlikely that he is going to come anywhere but a poor third. He is currently given a 4.8 percent chance of success on Betfair at [21.0].

Favourite for the Republicans is Mitt Romney on [1.76] with John McCain slightly behind on [2.02]. McCain had been ahead in Florida until last week but Romney appears to be gathering pace across the board heading into the crunch week in the election, culminating with Super Tuesday next week. An average of recent polls shows a 0.1 point lead for Romney in Florida but Betfair suggests a stronger lead.

The Democratic contest looks to be far more routine. Hillary Clinton is a [1.09] shot, an implied 91.7% chance of victory, while Barack Obama is available at [11.0].

Visit the new Betfair Politics Zone launched for Super Tuesday: http://politics.betfair.com