Presidential Election Odds: Obama the clear winner following final TV debate

US Politics / Mike Robb / 16 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

There was a 5% bounce for Barack Obama on the Betfair exchange despite certain reports in the media of a positive performance by John McCain's. As the race for the White House approaches fever pitch, Obama has a commanding lead in the betting...

Barack Obama's lead in the race for the White House has increased by 5% on Betfair following the final televised debate last night. The Democrat is now an 86% chance to win according to Betfair customers.

This move comes despite certain reports in the US media indicating John McCain had come out on top.

'Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale' claimed Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal, 'McCain Presses Obama' according to the New York Times, yet Betfair customers betting with their own money on the markets have displayed the opposite view and the Democrat's position has strengthened following the final TV clash.

This continues a trend that started a month ago when Obama was on 56% and Republican rival John McCain on 43%. From this point onwards the Betfair market has seen a steady increase in Obama's superiority, with customers showing a firm belief that the Illinois Senator is a strong favourite for victory on November 4th.

We have seen a gradual strengthening of support for an Obama victory over the last month across the majority of Betfair markets. The 'Palin Factor' had a clear impact on the betting up to this point, but Betfair customers believe that her weaknesses are too great to swing the election towards the Republicans.

There are still 18 days until America goes to the polls and much can happen in that time. For now, though, it looks like this election is Obama's to lose.

Interest in the politics betting markets is increasing all the time, with more than GBP 7 million matched in the next president market already, having previously matched more than GBP 14million on the primaries earlier this year. In 2004, roughly 80% of the betting took place on election day and night itself, and so you can be sure that this year will see a new record set for the amount of money Betfair matches on politics.

The state-by-state markets are also starting to pick up, and with nearly three weeks to go we should see lots of trading in these markets now that Barack Obama is such a short favourite ([1.15]) in the overall market.

Over the next week we will be previewing the Betfair Battlegrounds here, so keep checking back for the preview of election odds in the smaller Betfair markets.