US Politics / Mike Robb / 09 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

We take a look back at what we said for the nine key states before the day and what actually happened...

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Arizona

"Hillary Clinton goes into Arizona as favourite, though this is one of those states Barack Obama will have to do well in if he wants to come through Super Tuesday to still be in with a chance of securing the nomination."

Result: Clinton beats Obama, but gets just six extra delegates (Clinton 31, Obama 25)

"This is John McCain's home state and it is largely accepted that winning your home state should be a formality if you are a serious candidate, and this looks set to be the case for McCain."

Result: McCain wins by 14%

California

"Performing well in California is important because of the number of delegates at stake, but the results here are often significantly affected by results from earlier states. Therefore, look to New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts to give an indication of how the voting in California will go - close results in exit polling from the East coast will bring people out to vote in California and have a big impact."

Result: Clinton wins by 10%, but had been behind on Betfair until around 2.30AM GMT after news of her wins in New Jersey and Massachusetts broke

"John McCain is currently favourite here but his lead has been narrowed from over eight points on average a week ago to just 3 points. Romney lies in second with Huckabee polling far behind in third place."

Result: McCain wins by 18 points

Georgia:

"It is widely expected that Barack Obama will win a landslide victory in Georgia in the same mould as his South Carolina victory. In a state where roughly one in three people is black this is an important stronghold which Obama is banking on winning."

Result: Obama wins by a landside margin of 36%

"Georgia, a strong Christian southern state, should be Huckabee's bread-and-butter. 85% of Georgians declare themselves 'Christian', with 39% 'Baptist'. Of the remaining 15% all but 2% declare themselves 'non-religious', and so if Huckabee is going to win any state in the Union, Georgia is it."

Result: Huckabee wins, beating McCain by two points

Illinois:

"If there is one banker on Super Tuesday, it is probably the fact that Barack Obama will win Illinois."

Result: Obama wins by 32%

"For the Republicans, however, things are much closer. John McCain is currently the favourite but anything could happen on the day."

Result: McCain wins by 18 points

Massachusetts:

"Hillary Clinton looks strong throughout the North Eastern states as she heads into Massachusetts with a commanding lead in the polls and on the Betfair market. Barack Obama will be looking here in the hope that a strong performance in the lead up to the day itself will bolster support at the polls and that he can pick up more delegates than expected, if not actually win the state outright."

Result: Clinton wins, but Obama picks up 38 delegates - 17 fewer than Clinton but a decent showing nonetheless

"Mitt Romney is hot favourite to win here, he is leading in double digits in the polls and is the ex Governor of the State, so in all likeliness this will be a Romney landslide."

Result: Romney wins by 10%

Missouri:

"The current favourite on Betfair for the Missouri Primary is Hillary Clinton, something that is echoed in recent polling figures with Clinton given an average 10-13 point lead. This is a state, however, that Obama could win, and if the 'tide of change' is going to gather any pace it is one he really should... Missouri is a state where this message could be widely adopted and is my 'race to watch' for Super Tuesday. Obama needs a win and I think is a decent bet to get it."

Result: This was, without doubt, the race of the day. Clinton traded at [1.01] but went on to lose, and Obama won a vital victory.

"Missouri is a toss-up for the Republicans, with polls showing leads for both John McCain and Mike Huckabee."

Result: McCain wins by just 1%

New Jersey:

"Clinton is polling far ahead of Obama in New Jersey and is rightly the hot favourite on Betfair. Clinton's strength in the North East is something Obama is going to have to contend with, but it is difficult to look to New Jersey for a surprise."

Result: Clinton wins by 10%

"Now that Rudy Giuliani has dropped out, John McCain goes into New Jersey with a similar lead to Clinton. Before Florida Giuliani had been polling just three points behind the front-runner but now, with the former New York Mayor's endorsement on board, he can be near certain of victory here."

Result: McCain wins by a huge 27%

New York:

"Hillary Clinton is one of the two current Senators representing the State of New York in Washington DC and has a strong lead in the polls to win this primary of more than 20 points. John Edwards' withdrawal will likely narrow that gap, but her lead would still be at least 10 points assuming all of Edwards voters go over to Obama."

Result: Clinton wins by 17 points

"John McCain's real challenge here came from Rudy Giuliani and now that he has dropped out and endorsed McCain it should be a formality that the Senator wins here."

Result: McCain win by 23%

Tennessee:

"We might just have a contest here in the Democratic race, where Clinton Currently leads Obama by 14 points in the latest poll. However, that poll was carried out before John Edwards dropped out of the race and as he polled 16 per cent in that same survey you would have to argue that Obama has a chance here."

Result: Clinton wins by 13%, so not as close as I had thought. John Edwards still got 4% of the vote, which is interesting.

"The Republican race is entirely up in the air as the latest polling showed a 12 point lead for Mike Huckabee over John McCain, but it was Fred Thompson who in turn led Huckabee by one point. The Betfair market currently shows Huckabee as the [1.3] odds on favourite, but with McCain at [2.12] and Mitt Romney at [2.44] this is very much a state that could go one of three ways."

Result: Huckabee 34%, McCain 32%, Romney 24%.

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