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Election betting: Will Bloomberg run?

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Speculation is rife that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will run for President this year as an independent. Politics betting expert Michael Robb looks at whether or not this is likely and what the impact will be on the two main candidates if he does run...

Third party or independent candidates often run alongside the Democrat and Republican candidates with Ralph Nader and Ross Perot the two most obvious examples. In 1992 Perot ran the most successful ever third party campaign, achieving 18.9 percent of the vote while spending over $65 million of his own money in the process.

Third party candidates cannot win but they can have a significant impact on electoral outcomes. In 2000, George W. Bush won New Hampshire by a little over 7,000 votes while Ralph Nader garnered more than 20,000, votes that would otherwise have gone to Democrat John Kerry and won him the state. Even more strikingly, in Florida Bush won by just 537 votes while Nader got 97,488.

If this does not hammer home the importance of third party candidates, nothing will: had Ralph Nader not taken part in the 2000 election we would have never had a President George W. Bush, and who knows how different the world would be now.

Will Bloomberg run?

Bloomberg himself has said on countless occasions that he will not run. His term as Mayor of New York does not expire until 31st December 2009 and he perhaps would want to see that out and look to running next time. However, next time he would be up against an incumbent - be they Democrat or Republican - and the huge advantage being an incumbent has in American elections surely means that it is now or never.

£10,000 has been matched on Betfair that Michael Bloomberg will be the next president of the United States. At [28.0] Bloomberg is favoured over Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, John Edwards and Fred Thompson, all of whom are still in the running to be their party's nominee, however small chances they may have. In other words some people clearly think that there is at least a chance he could run and, therefore, that his current price represents good value.

Furthermore, on 18th January this year Bloomberg reportedly met with Clay Mulford, Ross Perot's campaign manager in 1992 and 1996. Whether or not this is an indication that he is at the very least considering a run is open to debate, but this alone leads me to think he must be worth at least a couple of quid.

Nobody else in the United States has the interest, CV or financial backing to run as an independent. He is said to be the 34th richest man in America with a net worth of over $11 billion so money is certainly no object; in the 2005 Mayoral election he spent over $74 million, showing that he is not afraid to splash his own hard-earned cash to further his political ambitions.

What would be the impact on the two main candidates?

In 2000 Ralph Nader effectively lost John Kerry and the Democrats the election by taking votes that would otherwise won Kerry the election. However Bloomberg is different - it was obvious that Nader was a left-wing candidate, whereas Bloomberg as an independent is less clear.

He was a lifelong member of the Democratic Party but ran for Mayor in 2001 as a Republican, even though he is now an independent. On the one hand he is a social liberal, pro-choice, in favour of same sex marriage, advocates gun control and is against the death penalty. On the other hand he is pro free trade, pro business, against the forced withdrawal from Iraq and a strong proponent of lower tax.

In other words it is very difficult to say with confidence which of the two parties he would take more votes from. To the frustration of the Democrats it is most likely them, as for many Republicans abortion is a deal-breaker or maker in the support of any candidate. I once spoke to a Republican voter from St. Louis, Missouri, who told me that she believed strongly in almost everything the Democrats stood for - passionately anti-war, pro universal healthcare, etc - but the fact that the Democrat in Missouri was pro-choice meant that she could not vote for them, no matter what the other policies were.

How would he do if he ran?

He could actually do very well and would certainly be expected to break Ross Perot's aforementioned record of 18.9% of the national vote. The problem with the US election system is that it is not designed for third parties or independents as a result of the Electoral College. Ross Perot's 1992 record meant nothing as he failed to win a single Electoral College vote, and without at least 270 of the 538 of them he or she simply cannot win the presidency.

Saying that, the charismatic Mayor has a lot going for him. He has never taken his salary as Mayor due to his extreme wealth, he has given phenomenal amounts of money to charity ($205 million in 2007) and is seen by many as the ideal independent candidate - socially liberal but fiscally conservative.

Yes but, no but... Will he run?!

Maybe. There can be no doubt that at the very least the thought has crossed his mind.

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