US election odds: Could John McCain be the next President?

US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 23 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Politics betting and odds experts Chicken Dinner take us through John McCain's chances of being next in line to choose the decor in the Oval Office

Last Saturday John McCain won a narrow victory in South Carolina, leaving him in great shape for the February 5 assault on "Super Tuesday". Just six months ago he was broke and every paper ran his political obituary. Now he is the Republican frontrunner [1.97] on Betfair to win the Republican nomination and touted as the only man who can topple Hillary/Obama in a head-to-head. In recent history, the winner of South Carolina has always gone on to be the Republican nominee, many of whom eventually made president. Betfair has McCain at [5.2] to be next president, second only to Hillary Clinton, but does he really have the goods to make it all the way to the White House?

Is McCain Republican enough?

Probably not. The core Republican vote is split between three candidates - Romney, Huckabee and Guiliani - leaving McCain with sole claim on more liberal Republicans and the uncommitted. His first two victories came in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where independents are permitted to vote. Whether McCain can win over a Republican base he has alienated for so long is questionable (his liberal views on immigration are a massive handicap). Florida is his first major challenge (on January 29), followed by other closed primaries which do not permit independents to vote - including Arizona, California, Connecticut and New York - and which provide significant numbers of delegates. An exit poll in S. Carolina offers evidence of the challenge McCain faces: 8 in 10 of the voters described themselves as Republicans, and just 3 in 10 of them voted for McCain.

Is McCain too old?

Jury's still out. If he wins, McCain will be the oldest ever president, putting in doubt his stamina to lead the country at a time of crisis. However, McCain's veteran status has also provided a useful force field to deflect negative comments (trash-talking a high profile war hero is a sure-fire vote loser). Not only that, McCain benefits from running for high office before (in 2000) while the others were still figuring out the process. This puts McCain in good stead as Republicans usually operate on a "wait your turn" mentality and favour candidates willing to cut their losses and come back for more in a later election (Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bob Dole).

Does McCain have enough cash?

It's a big problem. Since 1980 the candidate who has raised the most money has won the party nomination. McCain has financially underperformed since 2007, with only $5 million raised to date, making it the cheapest campaign. If he were to win the nomination it would be unprecedented. And as the focus shifts increasingly from national security to the economy, cracks will start to show in policy (McCain's plans to cut federal spending have been savaged as a shallow fix and he has long denied the possibility of a world recession).

Could McCain beat the Democrats?

Yes. A recent Zogby poll puts McCain three points ahead of Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical match up, and two points ahead of Obama. McCain is the most accessible of all the Republican candidates and might capture Democrat voters put off by Hillary and Obama's constant scrapping. As it looks to be a Democratic year (since 1945, US voters have only once kept a single political party in the White House for more than eight years) a McCain nomination would be the worst outcome for the Dems.

So....?

It is unlikely McCain can keep living off the oxygen of free press and endorsements - these alone never win elections - but the race is still wide open and McCain has the organizational heft to fix his campaign's weaknesses (especially funds). His position is, however, precariously reliant on a Republican split vote - if a conservative consensus were to coalesce around one candidate McCain could be in trouble.