US Politics / Mike Robb / 22 April 2008 / Leave a comment

Hillary has a strong lead in the crucial primary tonight but keep your eyes peeled on the handicap markets, says Betfair's Mike Robb...

Hillary Clinton goes into today's crucial primary with only one option: win at all costs. It really is that simple. If she fails to win here then surely that will be it for the Democratic race as there is no way she could come back from this with a legitimate claim for her party's nomination.

On the plus side for the former First Lady it looks as though she almost certainly will win. Currently [1.1] on Betfair, she has always been a strong favourite here, though was drifting for a time - out to a high of [1.54] - as it appeared Obama was gaining ground quick. Any hopes of an upset were shattered, however, when Clinton's lead was cemented after he labelled small-town voters "bitter", an unusual error in what has been a flawlessly run campaign. Nevertheless, Pennsylvania has always been a state Clinton was expected to win and the Betfair market still predicts this will be the case.

There are also three handicap markets offered tonight, the first time this has been done in this years' primary schedule. You have the choice of +2.5%, +7.5% and +12.5%, with the latter attracting the most trade thus far. The [3.85] on Clinton to beat this handicap is not out of the question, though I would expect a bigger price - something around [4.6] - to make this tempting. The +7.5% market is the really interesting one and has to be the hardest to call. At the moment both candidates are odds on but the thing to do here is to watch it like a hawk as early results start coming in. If we see one or other candidate take early exit poll favourables then these three handicap markets will provide trading heaven.

Obama remains [1.24] favourite to win the nomination overall, with Clinton at [5.9]. Al Gore has drifted out to [29.0] having been supported into [19.0] recently amidst rumours that he could be the eventual solution to the impasse and take the nomination on the convention floor. Gore has traded at a high of [600.0] to be the Democratic candidate and [900.0] to be the next President. A scenario, incidentally, that I still find myself baffling at.

If Obama had not made that mistake last weekend then we could have had the real possibility of a shock win in Pennsylvania, something that would undoubtedly have brought an end to the contest. As it stands, it would appear that Clinton will win today and that no immediate end to the Democratic contest appears in sight.

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Tags: Barack Obama, election odds, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania Primary, politics betting, prediction exchange, prediction markets