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Ohio Texas Election Odds: It looks like the end for Hillary

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The politics betting experts at Chicken Dinner run through the various scenarios between now and either Clinton or Obama securing the Democrat's nomination

Well before Super Tuesday Hillary Clinton's campaign had pencilled in the rest of February as a bit of a challenge. That rough patch shaped up to be 11 straight defeats that have shunted her campaign to the brink of catastrophe. Every strategy has been deployed, but no matter what line of attack Clinton takes, Barack Obama has found a way to rebuff her.

Obama's Democratic nomination is not quite cut-and-dried yet, however. After countless contests and debates, the race is still on. But a sense of closure is near, and the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio could prove to be Mrs Clinton's last stand. So what could happen? Barack Obama is [1.26] on Betfair to win the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton is [4.3]

Scenario 1: Clinton drops out before March 4

It's not time to retire with dignity yet. Obama may have the momentum, but he is still in sight, at less than 100 delegates ahead, so there is plenty still to fight for. Even Bill Clinton has agreed that she could not stay in the race if she lost either Texas or Ohio though.

Scenario 2: Clinton runs out of options on March 4

The most likely outcome. The Buckeye and Lone Star states should favour her (Texas includes many Hispanics, while desperate working-class voters dominate in deepest rust belt Ohio), but polls show Obama steadily eating into her core demographics, especially unions and lower-income voters. He is now 4 per cent ahead in Texas, a state that Clinton seemed to have in her pocket for most of the campaign, and close behind in Ohio - so with the momentum of his string of wins, on a good day Obama could wipe the floor with her.

Scenario 3: Clinton stages a miraculous comeback

A fantasy. Since Obama has emerged as the frontrunner, the media are more closely scrutinizing his campaign, but Mrs Clinton's low blows haven't landed. In a recent televised debate in Ohio, Obama looked cool and collected while Clinton's attacks ranged from the desperate to the defeatist. This feistier tone has not helped stem Obama's confidence - in fact, he frequently uses it against her. Clinton would need some divine intervention or a sudden terrorist attack (highlighting Obama's weakness - national security), to propel her to a glorious victory.

Scenario 4: Clinton wins Texas and Ohio by a nose

Not beyond the realm of possibility. Any Clinton win will be narrow. She could still take Ohio (84% white and a high proportion of blue-collar workers). She also has backing of the backing of Ted Strickland, the governor. Texas is more contentious - about 40% of the delegates will be picked in caucuses, and Obama has won every caucus to date.

Scenario 5: Clinton loses but stays on

Yikes. A wipeout doesn't mathematically terminate her chances, but staying on would threaten to split the party. Neither Clinton or Obama can expect to win the nomination by virtue of the pledged delegates alone (Obama would have to win more than 75% of the remaining delegates - and Clinton even more - to reach the 2,025 required before the summer conventions). However, the unpledged delegates tend to plump for whoever looks most likely to win, so Clinton can't expect their support unless she wins at the big primaries.

So...?

Short of some spectacular campaign magic, it looks like the end for Hillary. Little has changed about either candidate since Super Tuesday - policies, personal appearance, campaign strategy - so the voters are unlikely to change their voting patterns. Unless Clinton can find a brilliant new way of explaining why she is a better candidate (and she's used all her best ideas already) Obama will continue pipping her to the post.

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