Obama McCain Betting Morning View: McCain puts his faith in Pennsylvania, but should he?

US Politics / Mike Robb / 29 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

With less than a week until Americans head for the polls the McCain camp looks in ever-increasing trouble. There seems to be a genuine belief emanating from the campaign that they can still do it, with Pennsylvania the epicentre of the late charge...

There is no doubt that Pennsylvania, on the face of it, is winnable for the Republicans. With large rural populations and an energised base of support, McCain certainly has a chance, however slim it might be.

What's more, both John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning furiously in the state. McCain himself has been in residence six days in the last two weeks, quite a commitment from a candidate who is struggling to hold on to traditional heartlands such as Georgia and North Dakota. In addition, the GOP have a well-oiled campaign infrastructure in the state, unlike many others, and are certainly able to match the Democrats in organisation and effort. It is also important to note that the Democrats have been highly active too, and so are obviously aware that a threat still remains.

Pennsylvania's geographical location on the east coast means that a quick lead in the exit polls on the day could be vital in the closing stages of voting in states further west. The 21 Electoral College votes on offer are not a be forgotten either, a total that puts its importance up there with the biggest states in the nation.

With all the chatter hinting that this speckle of hope is indeed real, why does both polling and the Betfair market disagree? The RealClearPolitics polling average puts Barack Obama 9.2 points ahead of John McCain in the Keystone State, a sentiment with which the Betfair market entirely agrees. The difference, of course, is that Betfair users give Obama a 91 percent chance of winning the state, the increased margin based on the fact that Betfair users are investing on who will win, with no care as to the margin of victory.

So who do you believe - the 'feeling' in the McCain camp and various parts of the media or opinion polls and the Betfair market? Something tells me it could be a bit of both. While I cannot see any evidence that McCain has a chance of winning here, the margin of victory could well be closer than polling suggests. This is precisely why the Betfair market is of such use - margin doesn't matter, a loss by 1 percent is given the same value as a loss by 90 percent. For this reason, we can confidently say that this 'feeling' in the McCain camp is wrong and that Pennsylvania will be coloured in blue come November 5th.

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