Politics betting: New Hampshire done and dusted

US Politics / Mike Robb / 08 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair's politics expert Michael Robb takes a look ahead to tonight's New Hampshire primary and how the betting has unfolded so far

If this time last week someone had said to me that Barack Obama would go into the New Hampshire primary as [1.03] favourite I'd have laughed before getting the thermometer out to check their temperature. There was just no way the situation we now find ourselves in could have happened, and I'm still struggling to believe it.

When the market for the Iowa caucus first appeared on Betfair before Christmas, I looked at Hillary Clinton and thought she was horrendously short at [1.8] early on, and I was proven right. At the time I still believed she had a good chance to win in Iowa, but the prospect of her getting well and truly thumped into third place with an 8.1 per cent gap was something entirely unexpected. It has been the scale of Obama's victory in the opening caucus that has resulted in Clinton appearing down-and-out, and the momentum gained has rightly propelled him into first place.

Obama's meteoric rise means that the primary in New Hampshire appears to be something of a no-contest; he will win, but at such short odds it's not worth the bother to bet. What is important to watch out for is the margin of victory - if Obama wins by a similar margin in the Granite State then watch Clinton's price in the Democratic candidate market drift even further than the current [3.9].

In the Republican race a similarly strong favourite has emerged in John McCain. At one stage it looked as though it was just a matter of time until his campaign was to fold, but his all-or-nothing New Hampshire strategy looks set to pay off as he has become the [2.76] favourite to win his party's nomination. McCain is [1.11] to secure victory in New Hampshire, a price too short for my liking, so I instead will turn my attention to the outright nomination markets.

The thing to remember with the nomination markets is you can effectively bet on who is going to finish second in individual primaries. If, for example, I think Mitt Romney will finish second behind McCain and that the gap will not be particularly crushing then I can back Romney in the outright market with a view to laying the bet off. Similarly, if I think Clinton is going to be beaten by a wide margin I can lay her in the nomination market to back her at bigger odds once the dust settles.

All in all, the New Hampshire primary looks decided before it's even begun and at this stage there is little to get excited about from a betting perspective. Obama will win for the Democrats and McCain for the Republicans, but it is the margin of victory that will have most bearing on future betting opportunities.