Iowa Caucus Odds: Obama the punters' choice

US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 19 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

Chickendinner examine the chances of the three leading candidates...

There are now just two weeks to go before the American voting season opens, with the first votes to be cast, and the first wounds inflicted, in Iowa on January 3rd.

The race for the Democratic nomination in the Granite State is the tightest, most dramatic it has been in years and - as first to the polls - ordinary little vanilla-flavoured Iowa has the capacity to slingshot a candidate into a formidable lead, or squash hopes flat before the race has barely begun. Hence the vigour with which the candidates have been traipsing round this section of the freezing, slushy Midwest, eagerly promising better days ahead.

A poll published in today's Washington Post has Barack Obama pulling ahead of the party's national frontrunner Hillary Clinton in Iowa by 33 per cent to 29%, with John Edwards, the subject of a front page National Enquirer 'love-child' article, forecast to take 20% of the vote. Senator Obama is now favourite to win in Iowa at [1.57], Senator Clinton is [2.24] with John Edwards a distant [4.2] shot.

Just a few weeks ago, Obama's first stab at the Democratic nomination seemed to have stalled, but Hillary has since wobbled, and his message of a fresh start has suddenly been broadcast far more effectively. There is a degree of inevitability that Clinton's lead would be pegged back, as the entire chasing pack gang up on the frontrunner in a fight for their lives. As national favourite, her message of strength, experience and 'electability' also comes under more intense media scrutiny than those of the other candidates. Meanwhile, Obama has benefitted immensely in certain states, although not nationally it seems, from the energetic support of daytime TV powerbroker Oprah Winfrey. Now that he is in front, his message will be similarly tested.

Hillary Clinton may be the first woman to run in an Iowa caucus, yet the women of the state are not showing themselves to be particularly excited by the novelty. Just 26% of women, who are thought to count for six in ten Democrat voters, said they would vote for Sen. Clinton in the Iowa caucus. This is in comparison to 31% who pledged their support to Obama.

In her favour, 33% of voters in Iowa say there's a chance they'll change their mind before polling day, while one in five say there's a good chance they will. Also in her favour is support from the over 55s. Exactly half of Democrat caucus goers are in this demographic - with Clinton being their top choice.

While failure in Iowa can derail a campaign permanently - if John Edwards fails to come in the top two he can consider his run doomed - success does not always lead to better things. Just five of the last nine Democrat winners of the Iowa caucus have gone on to eventually win their party's nomination.

Three times in history, the candidate that has finished third in the Iowa caucus has gone on to represent the Democrats as their Presidential candidate.