Election odds: Super Tuesday betting highlights

US Politics / Mike Robb / 06 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton traded at [1.01] before losing to Barack Obama in two states. Here are some of the betting highlights from the night

Betting highlights:

Hillary Clinton traded at [1.01] in Missouri for £5,682 and at the same minimum price in Kansas for £696 but went on to lose both states to Barack Obama.

A total of five of the 22 Democratic primaries offered saw the loser trade odds on at one point: Obama in Arizona and California; Clinton in Connecticut, Kansas and Missouri. For the Republicans, two of the 20 primaries saw the loser trade odds on at one point: McCain in Georgia; Huckabee in Missouri.

The largest volume in a Democratic Primary was California: £85,817 (still trading), which was also the largest Republican Primary, trading £37,566.

Hillary Clinton traded odds on in the 'Most Seats Won' market and went on to lose. The market matched a respectable £22,025, similar to the amount for a decent sized primary.

The next president market was extremely volatile with McCain, Obama and then Clinton all taking turns as favourite. Obama reached a low of [2.3] at 1am but has since drifted to [3.8]. Clinton now heads the field at [2.58], with McCain second at [2.84].

Looking forward:

We would be forgiven for expecting the Republican nomination to wind down now as John McCain now looks the presumptive nominee, currently 1.04 on Betfair. He himself acknowledged in a speech that he was "now the frontrunner in the race to be the Republican nominee", an issue he had previously avoided addressing.

The Democratic nomination, on the other hand, will continue full speed. Clinton is now the [1.65] favourite having been 1.88 at 10pm last night before any results came in. The Democrat nomination market has now matched over £1.6 million. Thus, although Clinton is a slightly stronger favourite from before Super Tuesday kicked off, both campaigns can be content that they are very much still in the race with a long way to go. Barack Obama is now [2.42].

Summary:
Alabama: Obama/Huckabee
Alaska: Obama/Huckabee
Arizona: Clinton/McCain
Arkansas: Clinton/Huckabee
California: Clinton/McCain
Colorado: Obama/Romney
Connecticut: Obama/McCain
Delaware: Obama/McCain
Georgia: Obama/Huckabee
Idaho: Obama
Illinois: Obama/McCain
Kansas: Obama
Massachusetts: Clinton/Romney
Minnesota: Obama/Romney
Missouri: Obama/McCain
Montana: Romney
New Jersey: Clinton/McCain
New Mexico: TBC
New York: Clinton/McCain
North Dakota: Obama/Romney
Oklahoma: Clinton/McCain
Tennessee: Clinton/Huckabee
Utah: Obama/Romney
West Virginia: Huckabee