US Politics / Editor / 04 November 2008 / 1 Comments

For all the latest news and information that is affecting the Presidential Election markets be sure to keep an eye here on Betting@Betfair...

04:00 AM

THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER, IT IS NOW!
Barack Obama will be the next President of The United States of America.It's all over folks, history has been made , remember the details of this moment in time for it will be forever referred to as the moment the world changed forever. Results stating that Obama has won in California and Wyoming have taken Barack Obama over the 270 Electoral College votes needed.
Breathtaking stuff!

03:39 AM

It's all gone a bit quiet. Most of the chatter on the media outlets has turned to what Obama is going to do as President or whether or not he will get a filibuster-proof Senate. All interesting stuff, just a shame the actual result hasn't played out a bit longer.

All-in-all it's looking like a disastrous night for the Republicans. Even if the Democrats don't hit the 60 mark, they will increase their majority. Similarly in the House, more Democrats.

America wanted change and they're getting it.

Click here to see what's left of the betting

03:20 AM

According to reports McCain has won in Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee - not that its going to matter the way things stand.

03:02 AM

The BBC is projecting that Obama has taken Iowa - a huge result considering 92% of the State is White - while Fox claims McCain has taken Utah. The Republican wouldn't know it though, reports coming in claim that the McCain camp have turned off all news stations - talk about burying your head in the sand!

03:00 AM

CNN has Florida at almost neck and neck but Betfair punters are yet again proving far more bold. The Democrats are currently clear favourites to take the State with odds of [1.1]

02:53 AM
Missouri is another one to keep an eye on - Barack Obama has traded very low here, though his price keeps moving in and out. I'm 99% convinced the state will fall for the Democrat in the end, such is my confidence in its bellwether status, I can't see how Obama would secure such a landslide nationwide and lose Missouri at the same time.

Surely not? If you think McCain could pull off his one surprise here, you can make some cash! Click here to bet now.

Alternatively, check out www.betfairpredicts.com to see how Barack Obama is now totally unbackable in what has been a remarkable election night so far, for the Democrats at least.

02:48 AM
CNN projects New Mexico for Obama, Louisiana for John McCain.

02:46 AM
Indiana is now the state to watch, it is yoyo-ing between the two candidates all the time. It is literally neck-and-neck at the moment, with the two evenly priced.

What's more, it looks like it will be Betfair's biggest state market on the night. It has currently matched GBP 232,746 and looks like there's a long way to go before we've got a winner. Finally, something interesting to keep us going through the rest of the night!

Click here to bet

02:40 AM

Biggest moment of the night - Barack Obama is now unbackable on Betfair.
Game, set and match.

02:34 AM
OHIO RESULT: CNN confirm the earlier Sky News prediction, Ohio has gone for Barack Obama

02:30 AM:
CNN saying it is 50:49 to McCain in Virginia with 71% reporting, it's looking close. Similarly in North Carolina, where Obama is ahead by 3% with 50% reporting - a situation that is almost exactly replicated in Florida.

States to watch from here on in are definitely Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina according to the media. The Republicans now lead again in Indiana on Betfair, though Obama is just [1.04] in Virginia, a very short price that makes it look like it is as good as won. In North Carolina he is also very short at [1.05]

CLICK HERE TO BET ON INDIANA NOW - IT'S WHERE ALL THE ACTION IS!
02:28 AM
BIG RESULT - Sky News call Ohio for Barack Obama as another of the key states falls falls for the Democrat.

02:23AM
RESULT: CNN projects West Virginia for John McCain, no real surprises there.

So far it's all going the way of Barack Obama and, more importantly, so far Betfair markets have got it all right...

02:20 AM
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has won re-election in Kentucky, CNN project. With 25% of polls reporting they put him to win by just 2 percent, a very tight race by anyone's mark.

The close shave for the Republicans here is another indication of the general move against the GOP nationwide.

02:12AM
LATEST NEWS: BETFAIR MARKET CALLS MISSOURI & FLORIDA FOR OBAMA

McCain will be crushed according to Betfair punters as he hits 100-1 for first time

BARACK Obama will be the next US President according to Betfair customers after they predicted that all the swing states will go the way of the Democrat.

As the US media continues to give Republican candidate John McCain some hope, Obama is now trading at Betfair's lowest price of 1-100 which means £1 is being bet to win 1p.

It's such an electoral bloodbath for the Republicans that it's not a case of how but how many for the Democrats - it's now 2-5 (71% chance) that Obama will win more than 351 of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs.

Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Trent University commented: "Obama is now favourite in the Betfair markets to win all of the pre-poll 'battleground' states. Since these were almost all states won by Bush in 2004, he can afford to lose one or two of these and still have scored a 'landslide' win of epic proportions."

Total amount traded on Betfair (as at 0200 GMT) - £34m ($54m)

To win Indiana - Betfair: 69% Obama, 31% McCain

To win Virginia - Betfair: 79% Obama, 21% McCain

To win Ohio - Betfair: 93% Obama, 7% McCain

To win North Carolina - Betfair: 73% Obama, 27% McCain

To win West Virginia - Betfair: 92% Obama, 8% McCain

To win Missouri - Betfair: 77% Obama, 23% McCain

To win Florida - Betfair: 88% Obama, 12% McCain

To win Pennsylvania - Betfair: No bet being offered for Obama

To be Next US President - Betfair: 98% Obama, 2% McCain

For live information from all markets visit
www.betfairpredicts.com

02:06 AM

The ever reliable Fox have now withdrawn their claim that Obama has won Ohio, but with Odds as long as [20.0] on Betfair, McCain does not seem to stand a chance there.

02:02 AM

Fox claims that Obama has taken Ohio, thats big.

02:01 AM

CNN claims that North Dakota has gone to McCain - it looks like being a terrible night for John McCain but at least he held onto North Dakota, it would have been increadibly embaressing if he hadn't.

01:45 AM
Not much good news for the Republicans right now althought it looks as if they are going to take Georgia - their odds now stand at 1.01 in the State.

01:40 AM:
Projections (CNN, Sky, ABC) showing that Obama looks to be giving McCain a real kicking in Pennsylvania.

01:37 AM

Perhaps McCain has some fight in him left - CNN reporting that Florida votes are now Obama 52% McCain 47% - he's closed the gap.

01:35 AM
Senate races across the country are looking good for the Democrats at the moment. Lizzy Dole looks like she's taking a kicking in North Carolina - not going to lose any sleep over that one, that's for sure.

01:31 AM
PENNSYLVANIA CALLED FOR OBAMA
Sky News calling Pennsylvania for Obama... The first really big news of the night, we now have two outlets (them and ABC) calling the state.

Obama still [1.02], looking home and dry.

CNN now also calling New Hampshire for Obama. Nothing on Indiana as yet, seems to have gone a bit quiet there.

I'm shocked at the lack of news coming out on Ohio - I would have thought the state would be plastered all over the networks once polls closed, maybe it's too close to even say it's too close?

National chart:

Check out www.betfairpredicts.com for more.

01:18 AM:
RECORD BROKEN...
The Betfair 'next president' market has now broken the total for 2004!

01:17 AM:
Let's take a quick look at the overall market - Barack Obama is now a stunning [1.02] to win overall, his shortest price yet.

01:16 AM
ABC calling Pennsylvania for Obama - no Betfair users are willing to bet against him at the moment, so this could be a good call by the boys at Sky.

Sky News calling New Hampshire for Obama.

CNN show McCain well ahead in Georgia.

All up in there air with nothing certain. Click here to see the latest betting in all the key states.

01:11 AM

Remember the moment! Obama hits 1.01 to win on Betfair - stick a fork in this one, its done!
Or is it?

01:07 AM
Obama is maintaining his healthy lead in Florida. He currently has 55% of the vote and McCain's odds have lengthended to[ 4.0] on Betfair.

01:02 AM

Obama is very short in Missouri - [1.33], the shortest he has been so far. Looking good for him in the bellwether state.

Which of the four key battlegrounds is McCain going to win to get his night back on track? At the moment it's not looking good for the Republican.

01:01 AM
RESULTS: (CNN Project)

Massachusetts, Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and DC all going for Obama.

Oklahoma and Tennessee go for McCain.

No projections: Mississippi, Missouri, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Alabama

00:58 AM

South Carolina goes Republican according to CNN. Betfair traders have also made thier minds up - trading on the State's result has now stopped.

00:47 AM
John McCain has taken a very quick lead in Georgia - 70:30 according to the first 1% of reporting polls on CNN. Better news for the Republican here even though he still appears to be struggling in Indiana according to the Betfair market - you can currently get [2.52] on McCain there.

Things are feeling a lot more positive for McCain than 30 minutes ago, but not much. It's a start.

00:45 AM
Betfair market shows Obama ahead in Indiana even though exit polls say too close to call

Obama will win in Indiana according to the Betfair market after moving to odds-on in that state for the first time - despite only 2% of exit poll data being made public.

Just two hours ago John McCain was the 4-5 favourite (a 54% chance of victory) to take the state, just as the Republicans have done in every election since 1964.

If Obama wins in Indiana it indicates a landslide election victory for the Democrat - he's now moved to a 96% chance of winning overall.

Total amount traded on Betfair (as at 2400 GMT) - £32m ($51m)

To win Indiana - Betfair: 64% Obama, 36% McCain

To win Virginia - Betfair: 90% Obama, 10% McCain

To win Ohio - Betfair: 88% Obama, 12% McCain

To win North Carolina - Betfair: 73% Obama, 27% McCain

To win West Virginia - Betfair: 92% Obama, 8% McCain

To win Missouri - Betfair: 67% Obama, 33% McCain

To win Florida - Betfair: 81% Obama, 19% McCain

To win Pennsylvania - Betfair: 95% Obama, 5% McCain

To be Next US President - Betfair: 96% Obama, 4% McCain

00:44 AM

CNN reporting that Obama has 57% of the votes so far from Florida- 27 seats up for grabs there so winning this State would be huge for either candidate.

00:33 AM

Betfair Proff Leighton Vaughan Williams has just had this to say: "Only a few districts of Indiana are reporting so far, and it's very close in the vote tally, However, comparing the exact same precincts with how they voted in 2004 shows a surge in support for the Democrat. This is showing in the markets, with Obama now favourite to win Indiana and an even shorter favourite to win the Presidency."

00:27 AM
Keep an eye on the Florida market. The Republicans have come in from 4.5 to 2.8 in the last hour.

00:24 AM
Ohio coming up in 6 minutes... Hold on to your hats

00:23 AM

You can now back John McCain to win the election at odss of [25.0]! Things are not looking good if you're a Republican right now.

00:20 AM

Obama goes to [1.45] in Indiana - CNN exit polls are showing Obama with a slender lead. You can't take your eyes off of this one

00:06 AM
CNN projects Mark Warner has won the Virginia Senate race. Could be be a presidential candidate in 2016? A debate for another day...

00:00AM

PROJECTIONS:
- Vermont goes to Obama.
- Kentucky goes to McCain.

CNN waiting on the other four states that closed at midnight GMT, notably Virginia and Georgia.

23:57 PM
The areas reporting so far in Indiana show that Obama is doing far better than Kerry did:

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%
(Figures from www.fivethirtyeight.com)

If this trend shows iteself elsewhere - especially Ohio - this will be a very, very good night for the Democrats.

23:55

Betfair punters are sure McCain is going to take Kentucky - his odds are [1.05] but according to CNN - exit polls are currently showing the Republican with a slender lead of just 3%.

23:48 PM
Lots of states polls closing in 10 minutes, including Georgia and Virginia. Indiana looks strong for Obama at the moment, lots of money coming in - if he wins there we might as well go home. Indiana hasn't gone for a Democratic President since LBJ back in the 60s.

23:45 PM

The Democrats are now odds on to take Indiana. This Election could be over before it has even begun!

23:42 PM

Only 1% of the precincts results have come in but CNN is reporting Obama with 51% of the vote compared to McCains 49%. This is exciting, the Indiana result is just huge!

23:30 PM

Some reports claiming that Indiana exit Poll is too close to call - no news yet from the major networks though.

23:24 PM:
ABC News reporting problems in Florida due to the new ballots. Anyone smelling a repeat of 2000? Probably not, but seriously... How hard can it be to arrange voting?!

23:21 PM
Unsurprisingly it looks as though Kentucky is going for John McCain. CNN report 59% to 40%. The state has never seen much interest on Betfair, just GBP 4,000 so far, largely because it was always going to go red, no matter the candidate. Saying that, you can lay (bet against) McCain if you'd like... [1.06] to lay at the moment.

Click here to bet

22:50 PM

Indiana is a State John McCain needs to hold onto. An early defeat there and Obama can start choosing the colour of the Oval Office drapes. In the last few minutes Obama's odds have dropped slightly to [2.22] although McCain is still the current favourite at [1.67]. With exit polls for Indiana coming in shortly, it's officialy Squeeky bum time in the Republican camp.

22:31PM
CNN exit poll: 86% of people who stated terrorism as their number one issue voted for John McCain. It's only a shame for him that it's all about the economy - it was Lehman wot won it.

No significant moves in the markets as yet, though Indiana is inching back towards Obama slowly but surely.

22:27 PM
Despite earlier market movements showing John McCain shortening, he is not back out at [19.0]. It is not clear what is causing these movements - either nervous traders or people interpreting the high turnout as a clear sign that Obama is home and dry.

Nothing major of note as yet, but we should be seeing polling data from Indiana within the hour. Things are heating up!

22:04PM
EXIT POLLS AT CNN...
Top issue on voters' minds: the economy 62%, Iraq 10%, terrorism 9%, healthcare 9%.

It's the economy, stupid?

22:03PM
CNN are reporting on the huge queues at election polls and reports of some unusual activity in certain states, with voters who think they are registered turning up and finding out that they aren't. Could this have an impact on the night in the long run? Possibly. So far the Betfair markets are holding strong for Obama.

22:00 PM
Welcome to the LIVE Betfair Election Night Blog. Betfair punters are convinced that tonight history will be made. Barack Obama is currently the odds on favourite at [1.06] but the odds on John McCain had at one stage in the last hour reached [12.5] , he can now be backed at [17.0] to pull off what would be the greatest Election upset of modern times.
Keep it right here if you want to stay up to date with all of the shenanigans sure to take place over the next few hours.

Comments (1)

1. skidMark | 04 November 2008

   Indiana market moving towards Democrat very quickly. Maybe this is going to be closer than most people think?

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