Does John McCain stand any chance at all?

US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 06 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Could the pensioner beat the new kid on the block?

While Hillary and Barack have been trying their utmost to push each other out of the spotlight since January, elderly war veteran John McCain has been quietly criss-crossing the country like a diligent spider, constructing a web he hopes will capture unsuspecting voters. But while the Democrats' shoving match has been capturing all the press attention, the general election race has a strange, unbalanced feel about it, with Obama hitting the ground running after barely spending a day off the front pages, and McCain feeling like he's just wandered in from the garden to see what's going on. Obama is also favourite in the betting, at [1.61] on Betfair to be the next POTUS. McCain is at [2.9], and facing a lot of work in the following areas if he hopes to narrow the gap.

Age. John McCain's first priority is to stay alive. He'll be 72 in August, a number that doesn't look so great against Obama's 47 (his birthday is in August). The McCain strategy is to brand his elderliness as "experience", and back it up by being patronising. "I have a few years on my opponent," he sneered this week, "so I am surprised that a young man has bought into so many failed ideas." The Clinton campaign tried this line of attack, though, and look where it got them. McCain would be advised to avoid this skirmish. Winner: Obama.

Security. Takes two major forms - the war in Iraq, and the fear of foreigners bringing havoc to the US. His stance on the war is a risky one at the ballot box - he's into it, yet 60% of Americans aren't. Expect him to rally people to support his position overseas by working on their nightmares about suspicious un-Americans. Winner: Obama.

George 'Dubya' Bush. The president is currently experiencing levels of unpopularity that few elected American officials have been unlucky enough to see. As a result McCain needs to drive home the message that "He's not with me." At the same time, he needs every last dollar George W can raise on his behalf, which leads to scenarios such as this week's meeting in Phoenix. McCain went to see him at the airport, but only after all the main evening news bulletins were well over, so there was little chance of anyone seeing a picture of the two of them in close proximity. Winner: Obama.

Swing states. Those all-important few states that hold the balance of power and determine which way the scales will tip. Except this time there's a lot of them, and the Republicans have a far better track record at squeaking through in tight contests - the tighter the better. Winner: If it's looking too close to call come election day, bet McCain.