What the betting markets say about the Clinton/Obama contest

US Politics / Mike Robb / 15 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

The topsy-turvy race for the Democrats has been reflected by the Betfair markets, with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton taking turns as the customers' favorite

Hillary Clinton was hot favourite on Betfair until the turn of the year, but the lead up to Iowa saw rival Barack Obama substantially narrow the gap before finally becoming the overall front-runner for the nomination on 5th January.

The Iowa bounce for Obama was stark and steep leading into the New Hampshire primary on 8th Januray, with the lead for the Senator from Illinois reaching over 70 per cent - surpassing the size Clinton's ever reached.

The impact of Clinton's shock win in New Hampshire is obvious in the Betfair markets, with Obama's gains over the previous nine days effectively being reversed to how they were at the end of 2007. The ferocity of the post-New Hampshire switch is can largely be attributed to the shock of the victory, which has been labelled as one of the biggest political surprises this century. Clinton's current lead on Betfair remains strong at 19 points.

With a 'win' for Hillary certain in Michigan tonight (she is the only name on the ballot), Obama will be looking to regain momentum in the Nevada caucus on Saturday - a contest in which he is currently given a 64% chance to Clinton's 41%.

For more information, data or comment e-mail michael.robb@betfair.com