2012 US Election Odds: Quit living in the past and keep up, it's time to focus on 2012

US Politics / Ari Last / 06 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

The dust has barely settled on Barack Obama's historic election win but for those punters not lacking in the foresight department, Betfair's 2012 U.S. Presidential Election market is now up and running

After the events of the last forty eight hours, it would take a brave man to bet against America's first black President holding onto his seat in the Oval office for two terms. Barack Obama's victory has been met with utter excitement across the globe and the public perception of the United States seems to have changed overnight.

Accused of being narrow minded, elitist and war hungry, the American nation's overwhelming choice of a candidate who is as multi-racial as they come, determined to help the poor, and seemingly willing to engage and attempt to understand people whom America are at great odds with, has dumfounded the country's critics.

America's President Elect will arrive at the White House riding on a sea of optimism in a time of absolute peril and fear. Obama was inspired and uplifted in victory yet one can't help but feel that behind closed doors he and his wife Michelle must be wondering what they have got themselves into.

The country is embroiled in two wars where victory is impossible with both providing an unfathomable drain on the nations resources, at a time where the economy is on the verge of unparalleled decimation.

Obama has a tough four years ahead of him yet judging by his popularity, he would need to do something horrendously ill conceived if he is to be ousted after just one term, which is why he is the unsurprising early favourite at [1.57] to win the 2012 election.

Hilary Clinton is a woman who has been through America's political mill and back again, yet her chances of success in four years time rest on her being able to first challenge and then defeat Obama for the Democratic nomination, and having failed as favourite this time out, the chances of her taking him on again as President are certainly slim, and her odds reflect that, she can be backed at [26.0]

Hilary though could draw courage from her husband Bill. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton ousted the incumbent George H. W. Bush to take the Presidency. Only twice since the law of a maximum two terms came into force has an incumbent President been defeated, the other occasion was in 1980 when Jimmy Carter was piped to the post by one Ronald Reagan.

Sarah Palin is perhaps more likely to become the first female President of the United States. Her performance in the spotlight this time around had its high and lows, OK mostly lows, yet the damage done was superficial and she has plenty of time to recover.

Palin, like her or not, does represent a large demographic of voters and the Republican Party having been stung this time around, may decide, much like the UK's Conservative Party did, that in order to combat a young fresh faced opponent, they must supply one of their own. The Alaskan Governor's price currently sits at [23.0] with the country's Moose population no doubt keeping a close eye on the market, hoping to see those odds drastically lengthen over time.

And what of John McCain? On this occasion he lost out to a formidable opponent and despite defeat, he came away from the campaign with more friends and admirers then when he started, perhaps he'll give it another go? Well if he is thinking about it, the statistic which shows that Richard Nixon is the only candidate in over a hundred years to win an election after previously losing one, may convince him to refrain from returning to the campaign jungle and instead see him choose to spend more time amidst the tranquillity of the golf course.

McCain however is a fighter and having spent years in a Vietnamese prisoner camp is used to pain, baring that in mind, you should be cautious before laying him to lock horns with Obama once more, especially with his current odds to win the possible rematch currently at [55.0].

Arguably the most intriguing name on the list is George Bush's Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. African Americans and anti-discrimination campaigners could be forgiven for feeling that from a political point of view, things can't get much better right now.

Yet in four years time the grass could be even greener, both candidates could be black and one of them could be a woman. Rice has a fearsome reputation within the United States' corridors of power and her current early market price of [19.0] will rapidly shorten if she were to even hint that she would be interested in her party's nomination.

Hold onto your hats, the race for the White House starts now!