UK Politics / Mike Robb / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

It's too close to call whether or not the Terrorism Bill will make it through the vote in the House of Commons tomorrow night, says Mike Robb

It's been an awful 2008 for Gordon Brown to date. With so much having gone wrong - most notably at the polls in London, Crewe and around the country in local elections - what chances are there that tomorrow could be the end for Gordon? You would be forgiven for thinking that defeat on such a controversial and high-profile piece of legislation as the Terrorism Bill would surely spell the beginning of the end (well, we're a bit past the beginning actually, but you know what I mean) and would surely be the nail in the coffin.

But maybe not. At the time of writing the Betfair market has only matched £2,100 but, nevertheless, the odds suggest there is more chance than not that Gordon will get his way. You can back the passage of the Bill at [1.16] or if you think it will be defeated you can back at [3.35]. Successful passage of the Bill has been matched at a low of [1.06] and so the degree of certainty is gradually retreating. The punter who got matched at [15.0] on 'no' must surely be happy with his trade.

A report in the Times today showed that Brown's popularity is now even less than that of Iain Duncan-Smith's tenure as Tory leader - not a sign that those Labour backbenchers wavering their votes will feel a strong need to toe the party line. Saying that, the same poll showed that nearly three-quarters of the electorate supported the increase, a fact that may sway the rebel backbench MPs to vote with their beleaguered leader.

What's more, senior Labour Ministers were quoted saying that the Bill could be determined by the nine Democratic Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland, and if that is the case then surely it is worth laying the Bill's successful passage for all you can at these short odds. If they abstain, it will take 43 Labour MPs to vote against the Government to vote down the Bill. If not, and the DUP vote with Brown, it will take 53 rebels. Worst case scenario for the Prime Minister is that all opposition parties vote against the Bill, meaning that just 34 Labour MPs would have to vote against in order to beat it, a number that is surely more likely than not under any circumstances.

So what to bet on? The situation is so uncertain that it's either a case of laying 'yes' or not having a bet at all. It takes a brave person, in my opinion, to back the Bill at such short prices when the margin of error is so small at the moment. Listen out for statements from the DUP - if they have made a deal with the Government and decide to back the Bill then the short prices will suddenly be far more appealing and worth taking on. It might also be worth watching the 'overall majority' market too, as defeat would surely see a shortening in the Conservative's price - currently [1.76] - come late tomorrow evening and present a good opportunity to trade in-and-out of the market quickly with greater liquidity in the market allowing for increased returns.

Whatever happens we can be certain of one thing. It will be an interesting couple of days for Gordon Brown.

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Tags: election odds, gordon brown, politics betting, terrorism bill, terrorism bill betting, terrorism bill odds