UK Politics / Chicken Dinner / 15 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Gordon Brown's businesslike image has been compromised by a hard-to-shift sleaze stain in recent days, says Chicken Dinner. So how do the Betfair markets rate his chances of winning the next election?

World leaders: when stepping off the international stage after displaying your statesmanship, do take care to avoid the giant vat of sleaze that waits at the bottom of the staircase. If only Gordon Brown had been thus prepared, he wouldn't have followed up his impressive performance at the G20 by tumbling headfirst into a weekend of embarrassing headlines.

The G20 snaps will have to be shoved into some desk drawer and forgotten for now. Much more pressing are the allegations that Gordon Brown's charmless inner circle have brought shame upon the government. Not surprisingly, Labour's chances of winning the next election remain moribund -[10.0] on Betfair to gain an overall majority, [5.1] to win most seats.

With defeat comes new life but probably not for Brown. The shortest price on the PM to leave office is [2.76], for him to quit between April and June next year.

If you somehow managed to miss the latest Brown fiasco, Damian McBride, one of his closest strategists, was caught peddling the idea that his boss' election chances would be improved if some embarrassing rumours could be made to wind themselves around the ankles of top Tories like evil creepers. The fact that the rumours McBride was preparing to spread were entirely fictional wasn't considered problematic.

The unfounded smears suggested: Putting the fear of God into [George] Osborne by spreading rumours that he took drugs and had sex with a prostitute. Challenging [David] Cameron to reveal details of an embarrassing illness. Accusing a gay Tory MP of promoting his partner's business interests in the Commons.

The reason you can tell they are unfounded is because they are so generic this is what real dunderheadedness looks like: a) the husband of one of the country's most senior cabinet ministers decides it is only right he should claim the cost of his porno rentals back from the taxpayer. b) The member for Edinburgh South decides that Remembrance Day is an excellent opportunity to film himself having sex in his Palace of Westminster office with a woman who is not his wife. c) Another senior cabinet minister has the brass neck to claim for a second home while simultaneously undermining any credibility he might have as a responsible adult by living with his parents. You see, Mr McBride, its all about the details.

For those looking to wager on the effect this might have on Labour's flimsy chances, consider this: economic catastrophe is a scenario that can be turned around, however disastrous. Sleaze isnt. It's bad and stays bad. At best it's forgotten, but with each subsequent infraction the whole laundry list gets a fresh airing. The chances of this administration keeping it clean between now and election day seem slim, so they are going to have to build an election strategy with sleaze management high on the agenda, yet the person responsible for the election strategy was also the one who served up the latest bucketful of embarrassment.

Better fix that economy soon, Mr Brown. The passengers are getting very impatient, sir.