Politics Betting: How the race to be Speaker was won on Betfair

UK Politics / Mike Robb / 23 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

John Bercow was elected the next Speaker of the House of Commons on Monday, having been the favourite on Betfair when betting began...

The Conservative, who lost all support in the betting and languished in third place on Monday morning, went on to win after the expected challenge from Margaret Beckett failed to materialise.

The three most-fancied candidates - Bercow, Beckett and Sir George Young - all traded odds-on at some point during the contest. At the time the market was suspended on Monday evening Bercow was just 4-9 (an implied 69 percent chance), and so there was constant doubt throughout the race right up until the result was announced.

Betfair spokesman Michael Robb said: "Betting on the next Speaker was extremely volatile over the weekend with all three of the main candidates having led the market at one point or other. It looked bleak for Bercow first thing on Monday and it appeared that the 'Tories against Bercow' brigade would get their way.

"The betting has been great to watch throughout and with Speaker Bercow now installed it's a real shame we're not going to have another market like this for at least nine years!

"Perhaps..."

A: Margaret Beckett enters the race on 10th June (Odds: 3-1 Bercow, 5-1 Beckett, 11-1 Young)

B: Support for Bercow gathers pace as Labour members see him as the Tory of choice (Odds: 7-4 Bercow, 7-1 Beckett, 12-1 Young)

C: Rumours of a 'Stop Bercow' campaign from the Tories sees support fade and Beckett take the lead, with support for Sir George Young on the climb amidst thoughts he could squeeze victory if Tories go for him over Beckett (Odds: 12-5 Young, 4-1 Beckett, 4-1 Bercow)

D: Beckett speech not well received by punters and she goes on to finish a distant third. Bercow wins the final round of voting against Young and becomes the next Speaker of the House of Commons.