Politics Betting: Brown's gotta go some time, but when?

UK Politics / Eliot Pollak / 11 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Nick Griffin is going to take us all to hell in a handcart - Eliot Pollak advises on how to at least load the boot up with cash beforehand.

As the dagger dangles, ready to fall on over 1000 years of English parliamentary democracy. As a nation bedevilled by the swine flu and a once-in-a-Methuselah-lifetime economic crisis looks set to fall into the hands of Esther Rantzen. And as the dreaded nightmare of a Fascist party winning seats at a British election morphs into reality, there is only one question left to ask - how can I make a few quid out of this impending armageddon?

Nick Griffin is going to take us all to hell in a handcart - Eliot Pollak advises on how to at least load the boot up with cash beforehand.

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In the time taken to read the above paragraph, it's plausible that another minister you've never heard of has decided to sack the whole thing off, perhaps to "spend more time with his family", ignoring the inconvenient fact that the majority of them are on his payroll at the moment anyway. Gordon Brown will certainly not have resigned however, so it is worth having a look at the 'Leader Exit Dates - Gordon Brown' market just to remind us all that he will indeed have to go one day. Ahhh- feels better already.

It is unforeseeable that Brown could, in the next 12 months, reach a nadir below the one he sunk to last week. The economy (or at least the FTSE) has bottomed out, the expenses juggernaut appears to have run out of steam, and he will not have to face another national election until the General Election (although there is a potentially slippery by-election in Norwich North, a litmus-paper seat that has elected the party of government since 1983.) Only a scandal involving sex, drugs and dwarves, could cause the PM's approval ratings to plummet further.

Clearly, if Labour MPs failed to oust Brown at such a low ebb, they will have no chance in the coming months when at the very least, things won't get worse.

It is equally clear that Brown has no intention of resigning; he didn't spend 10 years gritting his teeth next door just to signal to the bench pointing at his groin after half an hour. So when he does ultimately exit number ten, it will be through a general election, held in one of two scenarios.

Scenario A: The economy picks up by late winter, and Cameron can't really make a compelling case for the electorate to switch over. Gordon calls a snap election whilst the going is good...

Or

Scenario B: Polls remain consistently heinous. Brown waits and waits until the last possible poll date, late May 2010.

Looking at Scenario A first, that of a winnable general election for Labour and consequently, Brown attaining a mandate for five more years, taking him through to 2015. In which case, the [16.5] currently on offer for 'Jan 2011 onwards' looks hugely attractive.

If all this sounds far-fetched, it is worth remembering that as recently as December '08, the Tories lead in an ICM poll was only 5%, not enough for an outright majority. It was the recent expenses miasma, and not any significant wrong move by Brown, that caused the 16% polling last Thursday. If the economy recovers, or even looks as if it might, that gap could shrink once more.

With Apr-Jun 2010 trading as hot favourite at [1.8], it appears most punters see option B as the most likely. If you can't see the situation getting any rosier for our beleaguered leader, he won't call a General Election until then. By the morning after polling, it will be curtains for Brown, and a new set of curtains for number ten - only twice since the war has a party waited five years to go to the polls, and still won the election.

In conclusion, it appears that in this market, there are really only two true options. Laying the other six would appear sensible. Either way, get involved. Because apathy in politics is so last year, darling.