Politics Betting: Brown fate sealed, executioner wanted

UK Politics / Editor / 29 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

The results of next Thursday's European elections could cause unprecedented panic in the Labour Party, says Chicken Dinner.But, while political writers are in agreement that something momentous is about to happen, Betfair punters disagree...

What is the most depressing sound known to man? In the States there is a television programme called Sixty Minutes which has aired on Sunday evenings for what feels like all eternity, and which starts with the ticking of a stopwatch. Generations of Americans have gone through childhood associating this busy little noise with the end of the weekend, a quiet yet urgent announcement that another heart-sinking week of education is imminent. Even the sight of a stopwatch can still send grown men and women into a reflex grab for their preferred form of self-medication.

In the UK, the evening of Sunday, June 7 could bring an even more depressing sound to the ears of our beleaguered politicians, as returns from next Thursday's European elections are expected, bringing gloom on a scale that could spread unprecedented havoc through the ranks of the Labour Party.

"This could be like those incredible few days in November 1990 when the Tories finally knifed Maggie," says Mike Smithson on Politicalbetting.com.

Plenty of other political writers agree that something momentous is about to happen.

"Right now we are watching a quiet but large and desperate Labour race to the lifeboats," says the Guardian's Martin Kettle.

"When I bumped into one star of the Blair/Brown era with a cheery "What's up?", the answer was apocalyptic: 'I'll tell you what's up,' came the reply, 'Gordon will be gone by the middle of next month,'" wrote Sky News' Adam Boulton on his blog this week.

Betfair punters are not so convinced, however. They still think there is more chance that both Brown and Cameron will be leading their parties at the next election [Cameron without Brown is [2.42], Brown/Cameron is [1.71]]. Neither are they much taken with the second part of the scenario floated by a number of pundits; that the European (and local) election results will precipitate a leadership challenge, or that Brown will find an excuse to step down - not that he needs one - and Alan Johnson will take over as leader before calling a snap election.

Betfair punters are still going for a Jan-Jun 2010 election at [1.3]; Jul-Dec 2009 is [3.4], with the preferred quarter for a Brown exit being Apr-Jun 2010 [2.2].

So who to trust? The Westminster commentators or the wisdom of the crowd? There's little doubt that the elections are going to wreak such carnage on Labour's self-esteem that they are going to be in therapy for decades. A European election is a hard sell in the best of years, but with the expenses scandal leaving many voters feeling disenfranchised, Labour are facing their very worst nightmare that only old people will bother voting. While that nice Mr Cameron stands to benefit from the more moderate pensioners, the ghastly UKIP stands to be the principal beneficiary of the disenchanted vote.

Will this be enough to bring forward the date of Gordon Brown's execution? Rather typically in New Labour's twilight years, in which they've lurched from one fiasco to another, leadership plots have also been noteworthy for their clumsiness. David Miliband threw a few ham-fisted shapes last summer before sitting down again. Harriet Harman also made a wishy-washy gesture not so long ago. Alan Johnson may be the next valiant prince, but wha'ts his motivation? If he were to topple Gordon and call an election, wouldn't he just inherit the disaster?

There's nothing to suggest an election sooner rather than later beneath a leader other than Gordon Brown would in any way placate a livid electorate thirsty for revenge. Best stick with current Labour orthodoxy and hope for a miracle.

Which makes this column favour the serene knowledge of the Betfair collective punditry: humiliating Labour meltdown imminent, yes, but no new leader, not yet, and no election until next year.